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21st century Mediterranean sea level rise: steric and atmospheric pressure contributions from a regional model

21st century Mediterranean sea level rise: steric and atmospheric pressure contributions from a regional model
21st century Mediterranean sea level rise: steric and atmospheric pressure contributions from a regional model
An Atmosphere-Ocean Regional Climate Model coupled over the Mediterranean basin and forced by river runoff and influxes from the Atlantic Ocean and the Black Sea is used to obtain estimates of sea level rise in the region during the 21st century. Changes in temperature and salinity under the A2 emission scenario, which corresponds to a high level of anthropogenic gas concentration in the atmosphere, are investigated in the different sub-basins and are used to compute the steric sea level change in the region. Significant spatial variability is observed. This model projects a maximum steric sea level rise of 25 cm. The mean steric sea level rise value predicted is around 13 cm with lower values in the eastern Mediterranean and higher values at the western Mediterranean. Coastal sea level rise values are found to be smaller, although this is partly due to the smaller range of vertical integration in the computation of sea level changes. Warming and salinification of the intermediate waters are also predicted to occur simultaneously thus partly compensating each other. The effects of atmospheric pressure changes are added to the steric sea level obtained from the model giving up to 2 mbars and thus also compensating some of the thermal expansion. Circulation changes will in certain areas also add up to 6 cm of sea level rise. There is no predicted seasonal bias in the sea level rise indicating that the seasonal cycles will remain unaffected. These results are derived from a single model and therefore can only been seen as part of a methodological study. Similar investigations should be applied to a range of models and scenarios in order to obtain a range of the future sea level change in the Mediterranean basin and its associated uncertainties.
sea level, Mediterranean Sea, regional climate model, steric effects
0921-8181
105-111
Tsimplis, Michael N.
df6dd749-cda4-46ec-983c-bf022d737031
Marcos, Marta
e9449b6f-834c-4239-8bb7-b611a0062412
Somot, Samuel
e9d5b32b-3ab2-44bd-b0da-8e9eaca72478
Tsimplis, Michael N.
df6dd749-cda4-46ec-983c-bf022d737031
Marcos, Marta
e9449b6f-834c-4239-8bb7-b611a0062412
Somot, Samuel
e9d5b32b-3ab2-44bd-b0da-8e9eaca72478

Tsimplis, Michael N., Marcos, Marta and Somot, Samuel (2008) 21st century Mediterranean sea level rise: steric and atmospheric pressure contributions from a regional model. Global and Planetary Change, 63 (2-3), 105-111. (doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.09.006).

Record type: Article

Abstract

An Atmosphere-Ocean Regional Climate Model coupled over the Mediterranean basin and forced by river runoff and influxes from the Atlantic Ocean and the Black Sea is used to obtain estimates of sea level rise in the region during the 21st century. Changes in temperature and salinity under the A2 emission scenario, which corresponds to a high level of anthropogenic gas concentration in the atmosphere, are investigated in the different sub-basins and are used to compute the steric sea level change in the region. Significant spatial variability is observed. This model projects a maximum steric sea level rise of 25 cm. The mean steric sea level rise value predicted is around 13 cm with lower values in the eastern Mediterranean and higher values at the western Mediterranean. Coastal sea level rise values are found to be smaller, although this is partly due to the smaller range of vertical integration in the computation of sea level changes. Warming and salinification of the intermediate waters are also predicted to occur simultaneously thus partly compensating each other. The effects of atmospheric pressure changes are added to the steric sea level obtained from the model giving up to 2 mbars and thus also compensating some of the thermal expansion. Circulation changes will in certain areas also add up to 6 cm of sea level rise. There is no predicted seasonal bias in the sea level rise indicating that the seasonal cycles will remain unaffected. These results are derived from a single model and therefore can only been seen as part of a methodological study. Similar investigations should be applied to a range of models and scenarios in order to obtain a range of the future sea level change in the Mediterranean basin and its associated uncertainties.

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More information

Published date: September 2008
Keywords: sea level, Mediterranean Sea, regional climate model, steric effects
Organisations: National Oceanography Centre,Southampton

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 50378
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/50378
ISSN: 0921-8181
PURE UUID: 51471812-8d6e-4a0f-8ada-185030934b85

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Date deposited: 21 Feb 2008
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 10:05

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Contributors

Author: Michael N. Tsimplis
Author: Marta Marcos
Author: Samuel Somot

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