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A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK. Part I. Methodology

A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK. Part I. Methodology
A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK. Part I. Methodology
Policy makers and stakeholders are increasingly demanding impact assessments which produce policy-relevant guidance on the local impacts of global climate change. The ‘Regional Climate Change Impact and Response Studies in East Anglia and North West England’ (RegIS) study developed a methodology for stakeholder-led, regional climate change impact assessment that explicitly evaluated local and regional (sub-national) scale impacts and adaptation options, and cross-sectoral interactions between four major sectors driving landscape change (agriculture, biodiversity, coasts and floodplains and water resources). The ‘Drivers-Pressure-State-Impact-Response’ (DPSIR) approach provided a structure for linking the modelling and scenario techniques. A 5 × 5 km grid was chosen for numerical modelling input (climate and socio-economic scenarios) and output, as a compromise between the climate scenario resolution (10 × 10 km) and the detailed spatial resolution output desired by stakeholders. Fundamental methodological issues have been raised by RegIS which reflect the difficulty of multi-sectoral modelling studies at local scales. In particular, the role of scenarios, error propagation in linked models, model validity, transparency and transportability as well as the use of integrated assessment to evaluate adaptation options to climate change are examined. Integrated assessments will provide new insights which will compliment those derived by more detailed sectoral assessments.
0165-0009
9-41
Holman, I.P.
06e20a88-df6c-4f4c-9b1f-d68fbba0760a
Rounsevell, M.D.A.
7850c51a-d9b3-48f9-bcc4-1b66abf78e4a
Shackley, S.
150d8f76-bb34-4023-bc9e-babe7b68b7c7
Harrison, P.A.
bb74e43a-4205-47db-947d-8e2531b52497
Nicholls, R.J.
4ce1e355-cc5d-4702-8124-820932c57076
Berry, P.M.
b8005d23-1fd5-493a-8a28-927538ea52ec
Audsley, E.
776a7eb6-e116-49a3-a2cc-3c1511f9d94c
Holman, I.P.
06e20a88-df6c-4f4c-9b1f-d68fbba0760a
Rounsevell, M.D.A.
7850c51a-d9b3-48f9-bcc4-1b66abf78e4a
Shackley, S.
150d8f76-bb34-4023-bc9e-babe7b68b7c7
Harrison, P.A.
bb74e43a-4205-47db-947d-8e2531b52497
Nicholls, R.J.
4ce1e355-cc5d-4702-8124-820932c57076
Berry, P.M.
b8005d23-1fd5-493a-8a28-927538ea52ec
Audsley, E.
776a7eb6-e116-49a3-a2cc-3c1511f9d94c

Holman, I.P., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Shackley, S., Harrison, P.A., Nicholls, R.J., Berry, P.M. and Audsley, E. (2005) A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK. Part I. Methodology. Climatic Change, 71 (1-2), 9-41. (doi:10.1007/s10584-005-5927-y).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Policy makers and stakeholders are increasingly demanding impact assessments which produce policy-relevant guidance on the local impacts of global climate change. The ‘Regional Climate Change Impact and Response Studies in East Anglia and North West England’ (RegIS) study developed a methodology for stakeholder-led, regional climate change impact assessment that explicitly evaluated local and regional (sub-national) scale impacts and adaptation options, and cross-sectoral interactions between four major sectors driving landscape change (agriculture, biodiversity, coasts and floodplains and water resources). The ‘Drivers-Pressure-State-Impact-Response’ (DPSIR) approach provided a structure for linking the modelling and scenario techniques. A 5 × 5 km grid was chosen for numerical modelling input (climate and socio-economic scenarios) and output, as a compromise between the climate scenario resolution (10 × 10 km) and the detailed spatial resolution output desired by stakeholders. Fundamental methodological issues have been raised by RegIS which reflect the difficulty of multi-sectoral modelling studies at local scales. In particular, the role of scenarios, error propagation in linked models, model validity, transparency and transportability as well as the use of integrated assessment to evaluate adaptation options to climate change are examined. Integrated assessments will provide new insights which will compliment those derived by more detailed sectoral assessments.

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Published date: July 2005

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 53513
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/53513
ISSN: 0165-0009
PURE UUID: a9bf7efc-83ef-4ff9-9adb-01d9f0ab4c56
ORCID for R.J. Nicholls: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-9715-1109

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Date deposited: 22 Jul 2008
Last modified: 16 Mar 2024 03:36

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Contributors

Author: I.P. Holman
Author: M.D.A. Rounsevell
Author: S. Shackley
Author: P.A. Harrison
Author: R.J. Nicholls ORCID iD
Author: P.M. Berry
Author: E. Audsley

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