Bayesian methodology for dynamic modelling
Currie, C.S.M. (2007) Bayesian methodology for dynamic modelling. Journal of Simulation, 1, (2), 97-107. (doi:10.1057/palgrave.jos.4250014).
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Description/Abstract
We describe a Bayesian methodology for fitting deterministic dynamic models, demonstrating how this can be used to estimate the uncertainty around model outputs. By its nature, Bayesian statistics allows all available sources of information to be incorporated: prior knowledge of the model parameter values and data corresponding to the model outputs, thus allowing for a thorough analysis of the uncertainty. The methodology is demonstrated with an example: a deterministic compartmental model of tuberculosis and HIV disease. We discuss how this method might be modified to allow a similar analysis of stochastic simulation models.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| ISSNs: | 1747-7778 (print) |
| Related URLs: | |
| Keywords: | Bayesian statistics, disease modelling, simulation |
| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science H Social Sciences > HA Statistics |
| Divisions: | University Structure - Pre August 2011 > School of Mathematics > Operational Research |
| Item ID: | 54094 |
| Date Deposited: | 28 Jul 2008 |
| Last Modified: | 02 Mar 2012 11:30 |
| Contributors: | Currie, C.S.M. (Author) |
| Date: | May 2007 |
| Status: | Published |
| Contact Email Address: | christine.currie@soton.ac.uk |
| URI: | http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/54094 |
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