Estimation of international migration flow tables in Europe

Download

PDF Download (319Kb)

Description/Abstract

A methodology is developed to estimate comparable international migration flows between a set of countries. International migration flow data may be missing, reported by the sending country, reported by the receiving country or reported by both the sending and receiving countries. For the last situation, reported counts rarely
match due to differences in definitions and data collection systems. In this paper, data known to be of a reliable standard is used to create an incomplete migration flow table of harmonized values. Cells for which no reliable reported flows exist are then estimated from a negative binomial regression model fitted using the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. Finally, measures of precision for all missing cell estimates are derived using the Supplemented EM algorithm. Recent data on international migration between countries in Europe are used to illustrate the methodology. The results represent a complete table of comparable flows that can be used by regional policy makers and social scientists alike to better understand population behaviour and change.