Estimation of international migration flow tables in Europe

Abel, Guy J. (2009) Estimation of international migration flow tables in Europe. Southampton, UK, Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute, 29pp. (S3RI Methodology Working Papers, M09/09).


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A methodology is developed to estimate comparable international migration flows between a set of countries. International migration flow data may be missing, reported by the sending country, reported by the receiving country or reported by both the sending and receiving countries. For the last situation, reported counts rarely
match due to differences in definitions and data collection systems. In this paper, data known to be of a reliable standard is used to create an incomplete migration flow table of harmonized values. Cells for which no reliable reported flows exist are then estimated from a negative binomial regression model fitted using the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. Finally, measures of precision for all missing cell estimates are derived using the Supplemented EM algorithm. Recent data on international migration between countries in Europe are used to illustrate the methodology. The results represent a complete table of comparable flows that can be used by regional policy makers and social scientists alike to better understand population behaviour and change.

Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
Keywords: constrained optimization, flow tables, international migration, migration Estimation; Negative Binomial Regression; SEM algorithm
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe)
J Political Science > JV Colonies and colonization. Emigration and immigration. International migration
Divisions : University Structure - Pre August 2011 > Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute
ePrint ID: 66197
Accepted Date and Publication Date:
11 May 2009Made publicly available
Date Deposited: 11 May 2009
Last Modified: 31 Mar 2016 12:52
Centre for Population Change: Understanding Population Change in the 21st Century
Funded by: ESRC National Centre for Research Methods (RES-625-28-0001)
Led by: Jane Cecelia Falkingham
1 January 2009 to 31 December 2013

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