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Regional impact assessment of flooding under future climate and socio-economic scenarios for East Anglia and North West England

Regional impact assessment of flooding under future climate and socio-economic scenarios for East Anglia and North West England
Regional impact assessment of flooding under future climate and socio-economic scenarios for East Anglia and North West England
Interactive tools developed within the RegIS project for assessing the impacts of flooding provide information to support flood management policies and analyse the performance of possible adaptation activities to climate change. This paper describes the methodologies used in the development of these tools including tidal and fluvial flooding processes with different levels of climate pressures, represented by changes in sea level and peak river flows. Potential impacts of climate change for East Anglia and North West England are explored to the 2050s using four socio-economic scenarios to represent plausible futures. This includes changes in urban land use as well as adaptive responses to flooding comprising dike upgrade and realignment options. The results indicate that future climate will increase flood risk in both regions. East Anglia is more vulnerable to climate change than North West England at the present level of protection, especially in the extensive coastal lowlands of the Fens and Broads because of the combined effects of sea-level rise and increased fluvial flows. Although the present adaptive policy of upgrading defences in East Anglia will reduce the impacts of flooding, this policy is not effective in the case of the more extreme climate change scenarios by 2050s. In this case, more extensive adaptation would be required.
0165-0009
31-55
Mokrech, M.
ab4a57d3-3bb9-41d4-bcae-e87e099ec25f
Nicholls, R.J.
4ce1e355-cc5d-4702-8124-820932c57076
Richards, J.A.
833d416e-e8b2-464d-b5a2-b79615d97a67
Henriques, C.
f8de2d8e-4887-4dff-a9e3-f0998ed9cc3d
Holman, I.P.
06e20a88-df6c-4f4c-9b1f-d68fbba0760a
Shackley, S.
150d8f76-bb34-4023-bc9e-babe7b68b7c7
Mokrech, M.
ab4a57d3-3bb9-41d4-bcae-e87e099ec25f
Nicholls, R.J.
4ce1e355-cc5d-4702-8124-820932c57076
Richards, J.A.
833d416e-e8b2-464d-b5a2-b79615d97a67
Henriques, C.
f8de2d8e-4887-4dff-a9e3-f0998ed9cc3d
Holman, I.P.
06e20a88-df6c-4f4c-9b1f-d68fbba0760a
Shackley, S.
150d8f76-bb34-4023-bc9e-babe7b68b7c7

Mokrech, M., Nicholls, R.J., Richards, J.A., Henriques, C., Holman, I.P. and Shackley, S. (2008) Regional impact assessment of flooding under future climate and socio-economic scenarios for East Anglia and North West England. Climatic Change, 90 (1-2), 31-55. (doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9449-2).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Interactive tools developed within the RegIS project for assessing the impacts of flooding provide information to support flood management policies and analyse the performance of possible adaptation activities to climate change. This paper describes the methodologies used in the development of these tools including tidal and fluvial flooding processes with different levels of climate pressures, represented by changes in sea level and peak river flows. Potential impacts of climate change for East Anglia and North West England are explored to the 2050s using four socio-economic scenarios to represent plausible futures. This includes changes in urban land use as well as adaptive responses to flooding comprising dike upgrade and realignment options. The results indicate that future climate will increase flood risk in both regions. East Anglia is more vulnerable to climate change than North West England at the present level of protection, especially in the extensive coastal lowlands of the Fens and Broads because of the combined effects of sea-level rise and increased fluvial flows. Although the present adaptive policy of upgrading defences in East Anglia will reduce the impacts of flooding, this policy is not effective in the case of the more extreme climate change scenarios by 2050s. In this case, more extensive adaptation would be required.

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More information

Published date: September 2008

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 75832
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/75832
ISSN: 0165-0009
PURE UUID: 653d865f-817d-4bb9-bb2f-ab78c8fd1455
ORCID for R.J. Nicholls: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-9715-1109

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Date deposited: 12 Mar 2010
Last modified: 14 Mar 2024 02:48

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Contributors

Author: M. Mokrech
Author: R.J. Nicholls ORCID iD
Author: J.A. Richards
Author: C. Henriques
Author: I.P. Holman
Author: S. Shackley

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