Knowledge and collective preferences. A comparison of two approaches to estimating the opinions of a better informed public
Knowledge and collective preferences. A comparison of two approaches to estimating the opinions of a better informed public
This article compares estimates of "informed" public opinion derived from the regression-based approach of Bartels, Delli Carpini and Keeter, and Althaus with those from the deliberative polling method of Fishkin on the same sample of respondents. Contrary to low-information rationality perspectives, both methods indicate that across a range of prominent policy domains, level of political awareness has a strong impact on the expressed preferences of individuals. And while self-canceling across respondents tends to translate these individual-level influences into only rather modest effects in the aggregate, on a significant minority of issues, substantial shifts in collective opinion remain. The broad similarity of the estimates produced by these two very different methods, in addition to their convergence with previous studies of information effects, lends some simultaneous support to the validity and reliability of both approaches.
deliberative polling, public opinion, simulation modeling
453-485
Sturgis, Patrick
b9f6b40c-50d2-4117-805a-577b501d0b3c
2003
Sturgis, Patrick
b9f6b40c-50d2-4117-805a-577b501d0b3c
Sturgis, Patrick
(2003)
Knowledge and collective preferences. A comparison of two approaches to estimating the opinions of a better informed public.
Sociological Methods and Research, 31 (4), .
(doi:10.1177/0049124103251949).
Abstract
This article compares estimates of "informed" public opinion derived from the regression-based approach of Bartels, Delli Carpini and Keeter, and Althaus with those from the deliberative polling method of Fishkin on the same sample of respondents. Contrary to low-information rationality perspectives, both methods indicate that across a range of prominent policy domains, level of political awareness has a strong impact on the expressed preferences of individuals. And while self-canceling across respondents tends to translate these individual-level influences into only rather modest effects in the aggregate, on a significant minority of issues, substantial shifts in collective opinion remain. The broad similarity of the estimates produced by these two very different methods, in addition to their convergence with previous studies of information effects, lends some simultaneous support to the validity and reliability of both approaches.
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Published date: 2003
Keywords:
deliberative polling, public opinion, simulation modeling
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Local EPrints ID: 80191
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/80191
ISSN: 0049-1241
PURE UUID: 66eeb34f-76c7-4bd3-af28-12527bd8658c
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Date deposited: 24 Mar 2010
Last modified: 14 Mar 2024 00:35
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Author:
Patrick Sturgis
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