Tempo and the TFR
Ní Bhrolcháin, Máire (2011) Tempo and the TFR. Demography, 48, (3), 841-861. (doi:10.1007/s13524-011-0033-4)
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Description/Abstract
Tempo effects in period fertility indicators are widely regarded as a
source of bias or distortion. But is this always the case? Whether tempo change
results in bias depends, in the view advanced here, on the measure used, the
meaning of bias/distortion, and the objective of analysis. Two ways of construing
bias in period measures are suggested, and their relevance is discussed in the
context of five broad purposes for measuring period fertility: describing and
explaining fertility time trends, anticipating future prospects, providing input
parameters for formal models, and communicating with nonspecialist audiences.
Genuine timing effects are not biasing when period fertility is the explanandum
but are distorting when the aim is to estimate cohort fertility. Alternatives to
tempo adjustment are available that are a more defensible solution to the issue of
timing change. Tempo adjustment could be more fruitfully considered a form of
modeling rather than empirical measurement. The measurement of period fertility
could be improved by relying more on a statistical approach and less on
indicators based on stable assumptions. Future progress will depend on
integrating research on measurement with substantive investigation.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | Online First publication |
| ISSN: | 0070-3370 (print) |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | measurement, period fertility, total fertility rate, tempo adjustment, forecasting |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HA Statistics H Social Sciences > HQ The family. Marriage. Woman |
| Divisions: | University Structure - Pre August 2011 > School of Social Sciences > Social Statistics |
| ePrint ID: | 80299 |
| URI: | http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/80299 |
| Deposited On: | 24 Mar 2010 |
| Last Modified: | 26 Jul 2011 09:53 |
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