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The consequences of CO2 stabilisation for the impacts of climate change

The consequences of CO2 stabilisation for the impacts of climate change
The consequences of CO2 stabilisation for the impacts of climate change
This paper reports the main results of an assessment of the global-scale implications of the stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at 750 ppm (by 2250) and 550 ppm (by 2150), in relationto a scenario of unmitigated emissions. The climate change scenarios were derived from simulation experiments conducted with the HadCM2 global climate model and forced with the IPCC IS92a, S750 and S550 emissions scenarios. The simulated changes in climate were applied to an observed global baseline climatology, and applied with impacts models to estimate impacts on natural vegetation, water resources, coastal flood risk and wetland loss, crop yield and food security, and malaria. The studies used a single set of population and socio-economic scenarios about the future that are similar to those adopted in the IS92a emissions scenario.An emissions pathway which stabilises CO2 concentrations at 750 ppmby the 2230s delays the 2050 temperature increase under unmitigated emissions by around 50 years. The loss of tropical forest and grassland which occurs by the 2050s under unmitigated emissions is delayed to the 22nd century, and the switch from carbon sink to carbon source is delayed from the 2050s to the 2170s. Coastal wetland loss is slowed. Stabilisation at 750 ppm generally has relatively little effect on the impacts of climate change on water resource stress, and populations at risk of hunger or falciparum malaria until the 2080s.A pathway which stabilises CO2 concentrations at 550 ppm by the 2170s delays the 2050 temperature increase under unmitigated emissions by around 100 years. There is no substantial loss of tropical forest or grassland, even by the 2230s, although the terrestrial carbon store ceases to act as a net carbon sink by around 2170 (this time because the vegetation has reached a new equilibrium with the atmosphere). Coastal wetland loss is slowed considerably, and the increase in coastal flood risk is considerably lower than under unmitigated emissions. CO2 stabilisation at 550 ppm reduces substantially water resource stress, relative to unmitigated emissions, but has relatively little impact on populations at risk of falciparum malaria, and may even cause more people to be at risk of hunger. While this study shows that mitigation avoids many impacts, particularly in the longer-term (beyond the 2080s), stabilisation at 550 ppm appears to be necessary to avoid or significantly reduce most of the projected impacts in the unmitigated case.
413-446
Arnell, N.W.
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Cannell, M.G.R.
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Hulme, M.
b65e2b3d-f0ef-4ba9-8dde-e29d9c966b7a
Kovats, R.S.
411d4f90-f93c-43e9-8ef0-9d89d2f2641b
Mitchell, J.F.B.
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Nicholls, R.J.
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Parry, M.L.
ef8d44bc-c57b-41a1-a19f-643d2b1d8225
Livermore, M.T.J.
24545251-0368-490d-bc1d-fc83e4078eaf
White, A.
1bc91e01-fd81-4c14-aaff-dcb3c9a009d3
Arnell, N.W.
196119de-cdf5-4ba8-a5d5-5e5cf4c88085
Cannell, M.G.R.
c45f1af7-f77a-4a1e-bf88-15b19dc7a5a9
Hulme, M.
b65e2b3d-f0ef-4ba9-8dde-e29d9c966b7a
Kovats, R.S.
411d4f90-f93c-43e9-8ef0-9d89d2f2641b
Mitchell, J.F.B.
925c9625-0993-4824-8a4d-84dfbd0f7e9c
Nicholls, R.J.
4ce1e355-cc5d-4702-8124-820932c57076
Parry, M.L.
ef8d44bc-c57b-41a1-a19f-643d2b1d8225
Livermore, M.T.J.
24545251-0368-490d-bc1d-fc83e4078eaf
White, A.
1bc91e01-fd81-4c14-aaff-dcb3c9a009d3

Arnell, N.W., Cannell, M.G.R., Hulme, M., Kovats, R.S., Mitchell, J.F.B., Nicholls, R.J., Parry, M.L., Livermore, M.T.J. and White, A. (2002) The consequences of CO2 stabilisation for the impacts of climate change. Climatic Change, 53 (4), 413-446. (doi:10.1023/A:1015277014327).

Record type: Article

Abstract

This paper reports the main results of an assessment of the global-scale implications of the stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at 750 ppm (by 2250) and 550 ppm (by 2150), in relationto a scenario of unmitigated emissions. The climate change scenarios were derived from simulation experiments conducted with the HadCM2 global climate model and forced with the IPCC IS92a, S750 and S550 emissions scenarios. The simulated changes in climate were applied to an observed global baseline climatology, and applied with impacts models to estimate impacts on natural vegetation, water resources, coastal flood risk and wetland loss, crop yield and food security, and malaria. The studies used a single set of population and socio-economic scenarios about the future that are similar to those adopted in the IS92a emissions scenario.An emissions pathway which stabilises CO2 concentrations at 750 ppmby the 2230s delays the 2050 temperature increase under unmitigated emissions by around 50 years. The loss of tropical forest and grassland which occurs by the 2050s under unmitigated emissions is delayed to the 22nd century, and the switch from carbon sink to carbon source is delayed from the 2050s to the 2170s. Coastal wetland loss is slowed. Stabilisation at 750 ppm generally has relatively little effect on the impacts of climate change on water resource stress, and populations at risk of hunger or falciparum malaria until the 2080s.A pathway which stabilises CO2 concentrations at 550 ppm by the 2170s delays the 2050 temperature increase under unmitigated emissions by around 100 years. There is no substantial loss of tropical forest or grassland, even by the 2230s, although the terrestrial carbon store ceases to act as a net carbon sink by around 2170 (this time because the vegetation has reached a new equilibrium with the atmosphere). Coastal wetland loss is slowed considerably, and the increase in coastal flood risk is considerably lower than under unmitigated emissions. CO2 stabilisation at 550 ppm reduces substantially water resource stress, relative to unmitigated emissions, but has relatively little impact on populations at risk of falciparum malaria, and may even cause more people to be at risk of hunger. While this study shows that mitigation avoids many impacts, particularly in the longer-term (beyond the 2080s), stabilisation at 550 ppm appears to be necessary to avoid or significantly reduce most of the projected impacts in the unmitigated case.

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Published date: June 2002

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Local EPrints ID: 14922
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/14922
PURE UUID: d74c45a1-893e-4de9-bc70-3d02b369721c
ORCID for R.J. Nicholls: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-9715-1109

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Date deposited: 09 Mar 2005
Last modified: 16 Mar 2024 03:36

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Contributors

Author: N.W. Arnell
Author: M.G.R. Cannell
Author: M. Hulme
Author: R.S. Kovats
Author: J.F.B. Mitchell
Author: R.J. Nicholls ORCID iD
Author: M.L. Parry
Author: M.T.J. Livermore
Author: A. White

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