Monthly, annual and quarterly frequencies: a comparison of models for tourism in Sardinia and bounded rationality
Monthly, annual and quarterly frequencies: a comparison of models for tourism in Sardinia and bounded rationality
This paper constructs and estimates the demand for international tourism for the Italian Province of Sassari. The sample period under estimation is from 1972 to 1995. Three dynamic models are estimated at monthly, annual and quarterly data frequencies. Similarities and differences are explored amongst the three models, using recently developed econometric techniques. A "pre-modelling" data analysis is undertaken for the economic series of interest. By adopting the LSE "general-to-specific" methodology, dynamic estimations are run. A full range of diagnostic tests is provided. Short and long run income elasticities, negativity and substitutability are tested on the light of economic theory. On balance, evidence is found that the monthly and quarterly models present homogenous results in terms of seasonal and long run unit roots. Annual data show different and perhaps misleading results.
University of Southampton
Pulina, M.
d56a44bb-4898-4901-911d-e515cb9e024e
O'Brien, R.J.
6d46f2be-6f1d-4bcd-9b94-baedee23ff22
2002
Pulina, M.
d56a44bb-4898-4901-911d-e515cb9e024e
O'Brien, R.J.
6d46f2be-6f1d-4bcd-9b94-baedee23ff22
Pulina, M. and O'Brien, R.J.
(2002)
Monthly, annual and quarterly frequencies: a comparison of models for tourism in Sardinia and bounded rationality
(Discussion Papers in Economics and Econometrics, 206)
Southampton.
University of Southampton
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Monograph
(Discussion Paper)
Abstract
This paper constructs and estimates the demand for international tourism for the Italian Province of Sassari. The sample period under estimation is from 1972 to 1995. Three dynamic models are estimated at monthly, annual and quarterly data frequencies. Similarities and differences are explored amongst the three models, using recently developed econometric techniques. A "pre-modelling" data analysis is undertaken for the economic series of interest. By adopting the LSE "general-to-specific" methodology, dynamic estimations are run. A full range of diagnostic tests is provided. Short and long run income elasticities, negativity and substitutability are tested on the light of economic theory. On balance, evidence is found that the monthly and quarterly models present homogenous results in terms of seasonal and long run unit roots. Annual data show different and perhaps misleading results.
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Published date: 2002
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Local EPrints ID: 33378
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/33378
PURE UUID: c9d3ff1f-ae02-4b4c-8281-40712a8b1a80
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Date deposited: 18 May 2006
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 07:43
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Author:
M. Pulina
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