A new world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2010
A new world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2010
Background: transmission intensity affects almost all aspects of malaria epidemiology and the impact of malaria on human populations. Maps of transmission intensity are necessary to identify populations at different levels of risk and to evaluate objectively options for disease control. To remain relevant operationally, such maps must be updated frequently. Following the first global effort to map Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity in 2007, this paper describes the generation of a new world map for the year 2010. This analysis is extended to provide the first global estimates of two other metrics of transmission intensity for P. falciparum that underpin contemporary questions in malaria control: the entomological inoculation rate (PfEIR) and the basic reproductive number (PfR).
Methods: annual parasite incidence data for 13,449 administrative units in 43 endemic countries were sourced to define the spatial limits of P. falciparum transmission in 2010 and 22,212 P. falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) surveys were used in a model-based geostatistical (MBG) prediction to create a continuous contemporary surface of malaria endemicity within these limits. A suite of transmission models were developed that link PfPR to PfEIR and PfR and these were fitted to field data. These models were combined with the PfPR map to create new global predictions of PfEIR and PfR. All output maps included measured uncertainty.
Results: an estimated 1.13 and 1.44 billion people worldwide were at risk of unstable and stable P. falciparum malaria, respectively. The majority of the endemic world was predicted with a median PfEIR of less than one and a median PfRc of less than two. Values of either metric exceeding 10 were almost exclusive to Africa. The uncertainty described in both PfEIR and PfR was substantial in regions of intense transmission.
Conclusions: the year 2010 has a particular significance as an evaluation milestone for malaria global health policy. The maps presented here contribute to a rational basis for control and elimination decisions and can serve as a baseline assessment as the global health community looks ahead to the next series of milestones targeted at 201
algorithms, bayes theorem, computational biology, databases, factual, endemic diseases, humans, malaria, falciparum/epidemiology/parasitology/prevention & control, models, statistical, plasmodium falciparum, risk factors, world health
378
Gething, Peter W.
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Patil, Anand P.
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Smith, David L.
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Guerra, Carlos A.
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Elyazar, Iqbal R.F.
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Johnston, Geoffrey L.
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Tatem, Andrew J.
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Hay, Simon I.
471d3ae4-a3c1-4d29-93e3-a90d44471b00
20 December 2011
Gething, Peter W.
6afb7d8c-8816-4c03-ae73-55951c8b197f
Patil, Anand P.
be82786d-85c0-48fb-817a-e3b319faac90
Smith, David L.
5c918948-ded2-42d8-82c1-a746a4bc3b6e
Guerra, Carlos A.
76a7a761-0e70-4e65-b3f4-794990895d05
Elyazar, Iqbal R.F.
2e6a807a-cdbf-4844-8b41-aad9997833e3
Johnston, Geoffrey L.
834f864b-d4f5-49a9-b7dc-052e087672f3
Tatem, Andrew J.
6c6de104-a5f9-46e0-bb93-a1a7c980513e
Hay, Simon I.
471d3ae4-a3c1-4d29-93e3-a90d44471b00
Gething, Peter W., Patil, Anand P., Smith, David L., Guerra, Carlos A., Elyazar, Iqbal R.F., Johnston, Geoffrey L., Tatem, Andrew J. and Hay, Simon I.
(2011)
A new world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2010.
BMC Medicine, 10, .
(doi:10.1186/1475-2875-10-378).
(PMID:22185615)
Abstract
Background: transmission intensity affects almost all aspects of malaria epidemiology and the impact of malaria on human populations. Maps of transmission intensity are necessary to identify populations at different levels of risk and to evaluate objectively options for disease control. To remain relevant operationally, such maps must be updated frequently. Following the first global effort to map Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity in 2007, this paper describes the generation of a new world map for the year 2010. This analysis is extended to provide the first global estimates of two other metrics of transmission intensity for P. falciparum that underpin contemporary questions in malaria control: the entomological inoculation rate (PfEIR) and the basic reproductive number (PfR).
Methods: annual parasite incidence data for 13,449 administrative units in 43 endemic countries were sourced to define the spatial limits of P. falciparum transmission in 2010 and 22,212 P. falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) surveys were used in a model-based geostatistical (MBG) prediction to create a continuous contemporary surface of malaria endemicity within these limits. A suite of transmission models were developed that link PfPR to PfEIR and PfR and these were fitted to field data. These models were combined with the PfPR map to create new global predictions of PfEIR and PfR. All output maps included measured uncertainty.
Results: an estimated 1.13 and 1.44 billion people worldwide were at risk of unstable and stable P. falciparum malaria, respectively. The majority of the endemic world was predicted with a median PfEIR of less than one and a median PfRc of less than two. Values of either metric exceeding 10 were almost exclusive to Africa. The uncertainty described in both PfEIR and PfR was substantial in regions of intense transmission.
Conclusions: the year 2010 has a particular significance as an evaluation milestone for malaria global health policy. The maps presented here contribute to a rational basis for control and elimination decisions and can serve as a baseline assessment as the global health community looks ahead to the next series of milestones targeted at 201
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Published date: 20 December 2011
Keywords:
algorithms, bayes theorem, computational biology, databases, factual, endemic diseases, humans, malaria, falciparum/epidemiology/parasitology/prevention & control, models, statistical, plasmodium falciparum, risk factors, world health
Organisations:
Geography & Environment, PHEW – P (Population Health)
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Local EPrints ID: 344413
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/344413
PURE UUID: eeeea6f1-ceae-4673-9a16-c5bddb2d9dce
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Date deposited: 07 Nov 2012 09:35
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 03:43
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Contributors
Author:
Peter W. Gething
Author:
Anand P. Patil
Author:
David L. Smith
Author:
Carlos A. Guerra
Author:
Iqbal R.F. Elyazar
Author:
Geoffrey L. Johnston
Author:
Simon I. Hay
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