The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

Use of Discrete-Event Simulation to Evaluate Strategies for the Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV in Developing Countries

Use of Discrete-Event Simulation to Evaluate Strategies for the Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV in Developing Countries
Use of Discrete-Event Simulation to Evaluate Strategies for the Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV in Developing Countries
HIV/AIDS affects over 40 million people worldwide, and more than 70% of these people live in Africa. Mother-to-child transmission of HIV accounts for over 90% of all HIV infections in children under the age of 15 years. However, implementing HIV prevention policies in Africa is extremely difficult because of the poor medical and socio-economic infrastructure. In this paper, we present a discrete-event simulation model that evaluates the relative benefits of two potentially affordable interventions aimed at preventing mother-to-child transmission of HIV, namely anti-retroviral treatment at childbirth and/or bottlefeeding strategies. The model uses rural Tanzanian data and compares different treatment policies. Our results demonstrate that strategic guidelines about breastfeeding are highly dependent on the assumed increase in infant mortality due to bottlefeeding, the efficacy of anti-retroviral treatment at childbirth, and the maternal health stage. The cost of averted infections, though low by Western standards, may represent significant obstacles to policy implementation in developing countries.
vertical HIV/AIDS transmission, discrete event simulation, cost-effectiveness analysis, epidemic policy model, decision-support-system
0160-5682
222-233
Rauner, M.S.
f65a8537-4a45-46ac-8d9a-35f3f09459f8
Brailsford, S.C.
634585ff-c828-46ca-b33d-7ac017dda04f
Flessa, S.
043be136-2a80-42ec-9790-46c3d738394d
Rauner, M.S.
f65a8537-4a45-46ac-8d9a-35f3f09459f8
Brailsford, S.C.
634585ff-c828-46ca-b33d-7ac017dda04f
Flessa, S.
043be136-2a80-42ec-9790-46c3d738394d

Rauner, M.S., Brailsford, S.C. and Flessa, S. (2005) Use of Discrete-Event Simulation to Evaluate Strategies for the Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV in Developing Countries. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 56 (2), 222-233. (doi:10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601884).

Record type: Article

Abstract

HIV/AIDS affects over 40 million people worldwide, and more than 70% of these people live in Africa. Mother-to-child transmission of HIV accounts for over 90% of all HIV infections in children under the age of 15 years. However, implementing HIV prevention policies in Africa is extremely difficult because of the poor medical and socio-economic infrastructure. In this paper, we present a discrete-event simulation model that evaluates the relative benefits of two potentially affordable interventions aimed at preventing mother-to-child transmission of HIV, namely anti-retroviral treatment at childbirth and/or bottlefeeding strategies. The model uses rural Tanzanian data and compares different treatment policies. Our results demonstrate that strategic guidelines about breastfeeding are highly dependent on the assumed increase in infant mortality due to bottlefeeding, the efficacy of anti-retroviral treatment at childbirth, and the maternal health stage. The cost of averted infections, though low by Western standards, may represent significant obstacles to policy implementation in developing countries.

This record has no associated files available for download.

More information

Published date: 2005
Keywords: vertical HIV/AIDS transmission, discrete event simulation, cost-effectiveness analysis, epidemic policy model, decision-support-system

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 36239
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/36239
ISSN: 0160-5682
PURE UUID: 7fffb8ee-caf3-4a5d-8ff2-227348c8e5c0
ORCID for S.C. Brailsford: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-6665-8230

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 22 May 2006
Last modified: 16 Mar 2024 02:41

Export record

Altmetrics

Contributors

Author: M.S. Rauner
Author: S.C. Brailsford ORCID iD
Author: S. Flessa

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×