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Reconstructing the ca. 100-year flood in Northern Thailand

Reconstructing the ca. 100-year flood in Northern Thailand
Reconstructing the ca. 100-year flood in Northern Thailand
The key utilities of palaeohydrological studies are the potential to extend the flood record of a catchment and improve estimates of flood frequency and magnitude. In this study, we use a hydraulic model to produce estimates of discharge based on PSI (Palaeo-Stage Indicator) evidence from large floods for a study reach of the Mae Chaem River, Thailand. Careful calibration of this model, especially Manning’s n, was possible because of the availability of PSIs from several modern gauged flows. Organic PSI evidence, contained in a cave, permitted dating of the largest flood for which evidence was available, which is close to the 100-year flood. The magnitude of this flood is twice that predicted from an extrapolation of the 49-year gauging record employing the Gumbel EV1 flood frequency model, officially endorsed by water management agencies in Thailand. This magnitude of flood is, however, very similar to that predicted from a Power Law model and suggests that extreme flood magnitude and frequency in this catchment conform to Power Law behaviour. These results significantly increase the perception of flood risk for the area, and this palaeohydrological case study represents the first for the region.
100-year flood, hydraulic model, calibration, Manning’s n, flood frequency, power law, Thailand
0169-555X
279-295
Kidson, R.
60d052dc-2b77-44f8-9700-93f71f3f80d4
Richards, K.S.
1a597945-c535-4296-88f4-d36d241ad7cb
Carling, P.A.
8d252dd9-3c88-4803-81cc-c2ec4c6fa687
Kidson, R.
60d052dc-2b77-44f8-9700-93f71f3f80d4
Richards, K.S.
1a597945-c535-4296-88f4-d36d241ad7cb
Carling, P.A.
8d252dd9-3c88-4803-81cc-c2ec4c6fa687

Kidson, R., Richards, K.S. and Carling, P.A. (2005) Reconstructing the ca. 100-year flood in Northern Thailand. Geomorphology, 70 (3-4), 279-295. (doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2005.02.009).

Record type: Article

Abstract

The key utilities of palaeohydrological studies are the potential to extend the flood record of a catchment and improve estimates of flood frequency and magnitude. In this study, we use a hydraulic model to produce estimates of discharge based on PSI (Palaeo-Stage Indicator) evidence from large floods for a study reach of the Mae Chaem River, Thailand. Careful calibration of this model, especially Manning’s n, was possible because of the availability of PSIs from several modern gauged flows. Organic PSI evidence, contained in a cave, permitted dating of the largest flood for which evidence was available, which is close to the 100-year flood. The magnitude of this flood is twice that predicted from an extrapolation of the 49-year gauging record employing the Gumbel EV1 flood frequency model, officially endorsed by water management agencies in Thailand. This magnitude of flood is, however, very similar to that predicted from a Power Law model and suggests that extreme flood magnitude and frequency in this catchment conform to Power Law behaviour. These results significantly increase the perception of flood risk for the area, and this palaeohydrological case study represents the first for the region.

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More information

Published date: September 2005
Keywords: 100-year flood, hydraulic model, calibration, Manning’s n, flood frequency, power law, Thailand

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 58061
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/58061
ISSN: 0169-555X
PURE UUID: b8eee0c3-3695-4fd2-bdae-be5d050edcbb

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Date deposited: 18 Aug 2008
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 11:09

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Contributors

Author: R. Kidson
Author: K.S. Richards
Author: P.A. Carling

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