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Using GENIE to study a tipping point in the climate system

Using GENIE to study a tipping point in the climate system
Using GENIE to study a tipping point in the climate system
We have used the Grid ENabled Integrated Earth system modelling framework to study the archetypal example of a tipping point in the climate system; a threshold for the collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). eScience has been invaluable in this work and we explain how we have made it work for us. Two stable states of the THC have been found to coexist, under the same boundary conditions, in a hierarchy of models. The climate forcing required to collapse the THC and the reversibility or irreversibility of such a collapse depends on uncertain model parameters. Automated methods have been used to assimilate observational data to constrain the pertinent parameters. Anthropogenic climate forcing leads to a robust weakening of the THC and increases the probability of crossing a THC tipping point, but some ensemble members collapse readily, whereas others are extremely resistant. Hence, we test general methods that have been developed to directly diagnose, from time-series data, the proximity of a ‘tipping element’, such as the THC to a bifurcation point. In a three-dimensional ocean–atmosphere model exhibiting THC hysteresis, despite high variability in the THC driven by the dynamical atmosphere, some early warning of an approaching tipping point appears possible.
escience, earth system modelling, climate change, atlantic thermohaline circulation, tipping point, early warning
1364-503X
871-884
Lenton, Timothy M.
245a93ab-92e4-4719-a8b7-7ef66d65d048
Myerscough, Richard J.
df526e43-fdcf-4081-9de4-d19e999b8af9
Marsh, Robert
702c2e7e-ac19-4019-abd9-a8614ab27717
Livina, Valerie N.
240f9f4c-63b6-4be7-bf39-583943017adf
Price, Andrew R.
b020e5b3-c608-4377-af0b-f97cd7ff64dd
Cox, Simon J.
0e62aaed-24ad-4a74-b996-f606e40e5c55
Lenton, Timothy M.
245a93ab-92e4-4719-a8b7-7ef66d65d048
Myerscough, Richard J.
df526e43-fdcf-4081-9de4-d19e999b8af9
Marsh, Robert
702c2e7e-ac19-4019-abd9-a8614ab27717
Livina, Valerie N.
240f9f4c-63b6-4be7-bf39-583943017adf
Price, Andrew R.
b020e5b3-c608-4377-af0b-f97cd7ff64dd
Cox, Simon J.
0e62aaed-24ad-4a74-b996-f606e40e5c55

Lenton, Timothy M., Myerscough, Richard J., Marsh, Robert, Livina, Valerie N., Price, Andrew R. and Cox, Simon J. (2009) Using GENIE to study a tipping point in the climate system. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 367 (1890), 871-884. (doi:10.1098/rsta.2008.0171).

Record type: Article

Abstract

We have used the Grid ENabled Integrated Earth system modelling framework to study the archetypal example of a tipping point in the climate system; a threshold for the collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). eScience has been invaluable in this work and we explain how we have made it work for us. Two stable states of the THC have been found to coexist, under the same boundary conditions, in a hierarchy of models. The climate forcing required to collapse the THC and the reversibility or irreversibility of such a collapse depends on uncertain model parameters. Automated methods have been used to assimilate observational data to constrain the pertinent parameters. Anthropogenic climate forcing leads to a robust weakening of the THC and increases the probability of crossing a THC tipping point, but some ensemble members collapse readily, whereas others are extremely resistant. Hence, we test general methods that have been developed to directly diagnose, from time-series data, the proximity of a ‘tipping element’, such as the THC to a bifurcation point. In a three-dimensional ocean–atmosphere model exhibiting THC hysteresis, despite high variability in the THC driven by the dynamical atmosphere, some early warning of an approaching tipping point appears possible.

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Published date: 13 March 2009
Keywords: escience, earth system modelling, climate change, atlantic thermohaline circulation, tipping point, early warning
Organisations: Ocean and Earth Science, Engineering Sciences

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 65084
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/65084
ISSN: 1364-503X
PURE UUID: a93830b5-2494-4610-8b75-1ace52415682

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Date deposited: 29 Jan 2009
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 12:05

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Contributors

Author: Timothy M. Lenton
Author: Richard J. Myerscough
Author: Robert Marsh
Author: Valerie N. Livina
Author: Andrew R. Price
Author: Simon J. Cox

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