Modelling the effect of urbanization on the transmission of an infectious disease

Zhang, Ping and Atkinson, Peter M. (2008) Modelling the effect of urbanization on the transmission of an infectious disease. Mathematical Biosciences, 211 (1), 166-185. (doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2007.10.007).

Abstract

This paper models the impact of urbanization on infectious disease transmission by integrating a CA land use development model, population projection matrix model and CA epidemic model in S-Plus. The innovative feature of this model lies in both its explicit treatment of spatial land use development, demographic changes, infectious disease transmission and their combination in a dynamic, stochastic model. Heuristically-defined transition rules in cellular automata (CA) were used to capture the processes of both land use development with urban sprawl and infectious disease transmission. A population surface model and dwelling distribution surface were used to bridge the gap between urbanization and infectious disease transmission. A case study is presented involving modelling influenza transmission in Southampton, a dynamically evolving city in the UK. The simulation results for Southampton over a 30-year period show that the pattern of the average number of infection cases per day can depend on land use and demographic changes. The modelling framework presents a useful tool that may be of use in planning applications

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Contributors

Author: Peter M. Atkinson

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