The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

Modelling the effect of urbanization on the transmission of an infectious disease

Modelling the effect of urbanization on the transmission of an infectious disease
Modelling the effect of urbanization on the transmission of an infectious disease
This paper models the impact of urbanization on infectious disease transmission by integrating a CA land use development model, population projection matrix model and CA epidemic model in S-Plus. The innovative feature of this model lies in both its explicit treatment of spatial land use development, demographic changes, infectious disease transmission and their combination in a dynamic, stochastic model. Heuristically-defined transition rules in cellular automata (CA) were used to capture the processes of both land use development with urban sprawl and infectious disease transmission. A population surface model and dwelling distribution surface were used to bridge the gap between urbanization and infectious disease transmission. A case study is presented involving modelling influenza transmission in Southampton, a dynamically evolving city in the UK. The simulation results for Southampton over a 30-year period show that the pattern of the average number of infection cases per day can depend on land use and demographic changes. The modelling framework presents a useful tool that may be of use in planning applications
CA land use development model, population projection matrix model, CA epidemic model, urbanization, infectious disease transmission
0025-5564
166-185
Zhang, Ping
2def4374-679d-41d1-bf3a-483028a73275
Atkinson, Peter M.
96e96579-56fe-424d-a21c-17b6eed13b0b
Zhang, Ping
2def4374-679d-41d1-bf3a-483028a73275
Atkinson, Peter M.
96e96579-56fe-424d-a21c-17b6eed13b0b

Zhang, Ping and Atkinson, Peter M. (2008) Modelling the effect of urbanization on the transmission of an infectious disease. Mathematical Biosciences, 211 (1), 166-185. (doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2007.10.007).

Record type: Article

Abstract

This paper models the impact of urbanization on infectious disease transmission by integrating a CA land use development model, population projection matrix model and CA epidemic model in S-Plus. The innovative feature of this model lies in both its explicit treatment of spatial land use development, demographic changes, infectious disease transmission and their combination in a dynamic, stochastic model. Heuristically-defined transition rules in cellular automata (CA) were used to capture the processes of both land use development with urban sprawl and infectious disease transmission. A population surface model and dwelling distribution surface were used to bridge the gap between urbanization and infectious disease transmission. A case study is presented involving modelling influenza transmission in Southampton, a dynamically evolving city in the UK. The simulation results for Southampton over a 30-year period show that the pattern of the average number of infection cases per day can depend on land use and demographic changes. The modelling framework presents a useful tool that may be of use in planning applications

This record has no associated files available for download.

More information

Published date: January 2008
Keywords: CA land use development model, population projection matrix model, CA epidemic model, urbanization, infectious disease transmission

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 146749
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/146749
ISSN: 0025-5564
PURE UUID: a8f86e1e-68ff-4e3c-a925-52bd0d645de4
ORCID for Peter M. Atkinson: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-5489-6880

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 22 Apr 2010 12:15
Last modified: 14 Mar 2024 02:37

Export record

Altmetrics

Contributors

Author: Ping Zhang
Author: Peter M. Atkinson ORCID iD

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×