Dealing with uncertainty in international migration predictions: from probabilistic forecasting to decision analysis
Dealing with uncertainty in international migration predictions: from probabilistic forecasting to decision analysis
The paper focuses on the uncertainty of international migration predictions, as well as on their consequences for
population projections and information delivered to decision makers. One of the key questions about probabilistic population forecasting is how its outcomes – the predictive distributions – can be useful for policy making and planning purposes. Some insights in that respect can be drawn from the statistical decision analysis, which takes into account the potential costs of both under- and overestimation of the variables under study, for example of current or future migration flows.
The on-going paradigm shift in demographic projections, from deterministic to stochastic, can thus be brought even further, to the field of decision support. In that regard, the paper presents the preliminaries of Bayesian decision analysis together with some examples concerning international migration forecasts.
Bijak, Jakub
e33bf9d3-fca6-405f-844c-4b2decf93c66
23 April 2010
Bijak, Jakub
e33bf9d3-fca6-405f-844c-4b2decf93c66
Bijak, Jakub
(2010)
Dealing with uncertainty in international migration predictions: from probabilistic forecasting to decision analysis
(Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections, WP22)
Eurostat
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Monograph
(Working Paper)
Abstract
The paper focuses on the uncertainty of international migration predictions, as well as on their consequences for
population projections and information delivered to decision makers. One of the key questions about probabilistic population forecasting is how its outcomes – the predictive distributions – can be useful for policy making and planning purposes. Some insights in that respect can be drawn from the statistical decision analysis, which takes into account the potential costs of both under- and overestimation of the variables under study, for example of current or future migration flows.
The on-going paradigm shift in demographic projections, from deterministic to stochastic, can thus be brought even further, to the field of decision support. In that regard, the paper presents the preliminaries of Bayesian decision analysis together with some examples concerning international migration forecasts.
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J_Bijak_uncertainty_international_migration.pdf
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Published date: 23 April 2010
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Local EPrints ID: 151497
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/151497
PURE UUID: cdf0b570-aabf-49aa-99e6-af91eb43be4e
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Date deposited: 11 May 2010 10:24
Last modified: 14 Mar 2024 02:55
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