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Detection of anthropogenic climate change in satellite records of ocean chlorophyll and productivity

Detection of anthropogenic climate change in satellite records of ocean chlorophyll and productivity
Detection of anthropogenic climate change in satellite records of ocean chlorophyll and productivity
Global climate change is predicted to alter the ocean’s biological productivity. But how will we recognise the impacts of climate change on ocean productivity? The most comprehensive information available on its global distribution comes from satellite ocean colour data. Now that over ten years of satellite-derived chlorophyll and productivity data have accumulated, can we begin to detect and attribute climate change-driven trends in productivity? Here we compare recent trends in satellite ocean colour data to longer-term time series from three biogeochemical models (GFDL, IPSL and NCAR). We find that detection of climate change-driven trends in the satellite data is confounded by the relatively short time series and large interannual and decadal variability in productivity. Thus, recent observed changes in chlorophyll, primary production and the size of the oligotrophic gyres cannot be unequivocally attributed to the impact of global climate change. Instead, our analyses suggest that a time series of 40 years length is needed to distinguish a global warming trend from natural variability. In some regions, notably equatorial regions, detection times are predicted to be shorter ( 20?30 years). Analysis of modelled chlorophyll and primary production from 2001–2100 suggests that, on average, the climate change-driven trend will not be unambiguously separable from decadal variability until 2055. Because the magnitude of natural variability in chlorophyll and primary production is larger than, or similar to, the global warming trend, a consistent, decadeslong data record must be established if the impact of climate change on ocean productivity is to be definitively detected.
1726-4170
621-640
Henson, S.A.
d6532e17-a65b-4d7b-9ee3-755ecb565c19
Sarmiento, J.L.
5887047e-92ac-47f7-a504-fb1699dd8d17
Dunne, J.P.
8ccd3d76-7ce1-41de-b8aa-c4ed36ab576e
Bopp, L.
f3ec9518-4c47-471e-9da9-0476aaebdff6
Lima, I.
b695fd38-76c3-47b7-a624-200c38863620
Doney, S.C.
4c4985b2-bcb3-463a-9b4b-ead5b79ea9ac
John, J.
bc852001-3628-4489-9c1a-43c25f3e3538
Beaulieu, C.
13ae2c11-ebfe-48d9-bda9-122cd013c021
Henson, S.A.
d6532e17-a65b-4d7b-9ee3-755ecb565c19
Sarmiento, J.L.
5887047e-92ac-47f7-a504-fb1699dd8d17
Dunne, J.P.
8ccd3d76-7ce1-41de-b8aa-c4ed36ab576e
Bopp, L.
f3ec9518-4c47-471e-9da9-0476aaebdff6
Lima, I.
b695fd38-76c3-47b7-a624-200c38863620
Doney, S.C.
4c4985b2-bcb3-463a-9b4b-ead5b79ea9ac
John, J.
bc852001-3628-4489-9c1a-43c25f3e3538
Beaulieu, C.
13ae2c11-ebfe-48d9-bda9-122cd013c021

Henson, S.A., Sarmiento, J.L., Dunne, J.P., Bopp, L., Lima, I., Doney, S.C., John, J. and Beaulieu, C. (2010) Detection of anthropogenic climate change in satellite records of ocean chlorophyll and productivity. Biogeosciences, 7 (2), 621-640. (doi:10.5194/bg-7-621-2010).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Global climate change is predicted to alter the ocean’s biological productivity. But how will we recognise the impacts of climate change on ocean productivity? The most comprehensive information available on its global distribution comes from satellite ocean colour data. Now that over ten years of satellite-derived chlorophyll and productivity data have accumulated, can we begin to detect and attribute climate change-driven trends in productivity? Here we compare recent trends in satellite ocean colour data to longer-term time series from three biogeochemical models (GFDL, IPSL and NCAR). We find that detection of climate change-driven trends in the satellite data is confounded by the relatively short time series and large interannual and decadal variability in productivity. Thus, recent observed changes in chlorophyll, primary production and the size of the oligotrophic gyres cannot be unequivocally attributed to the impact of global climate change. Instead, our analyses suggest that a time series of 40 years length is needed to distinguish a global warming trend from natural variability. In some regions, notably equatorial regions, detection times are predicted to be shorter ( 20?30 years). Analysis of modelled chlorophyll and primary production from 2001–2100 suggests that, on average, the climate change-driven trend will not be unambiguously separable from decadal variability until 2055. Because the magnitude of natural variability in chlorophyll and primary production is larger than, or similar to, the global warming trend, a consistent, decadeslong data record must be established if the impact of climate change on ocean productivity is to be definitively detected.

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Published date: 2010
Organisations: Ocean and Earth Science, Marine Biogeochemistry, National Oceanography Centre,Southampton

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 154065
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/154065
ISSN: 1726-4170
PURE UUID: d99ec3b6-c05e-4e06-bd34-bc59a423ed4b

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Date deposited: 24 May 2010 10:29
Last modified: 16 Jul 2019 23:58

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Contributors

Author: S.A. Henson
Author: J.L. Sarmiento
Author: J.P. Dunne
Author: L. Bopp
Author: I. Lima
Author: S.C. Doney
Author: J. John
Author: C. Beaulieu

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