Evaluation of ocean carbon cycle models with data-based metrics

Matsumoto, K., Sarmiento, J.L., Key, R.M., Aumont, O., Bullister, J.L., Caldeira, K., Campin, J-M., Donay, S.C., Drange, H., Dutay, J-C., Follows, M., Gao, Y., Gnanadesikan, A., Gruber, N., Ishida, A., Joos, F., Lindsay, K., Maier-Reimer, E., Marshall, J.C., Matear, R.J., Monfray, P., Mouchet, A., Najjar, R., Plattner, G-K., Schlitzer, R., Slater, R., Swathi, P.S., Totterdell, I.J., Weirig, M-F., Yamanaka, Y., Yool, A. and Orr, J.C. (2004) Evaluation of ocean carbon cycle models with data-based metrics. Geophysical Research Letters, 31 (7), L07303. (doi:10.1029/2003GL018970).

Abstract

New radiocarbon and chlorofluorocarbon-11 data from the World Ocean Circulation Experiment are used to assess a suite of 19 ocean carbon cycle models. We use the distributions and inventories of these tracers as quantitative metrics of model skill and find that only about a quarter of the suite is consistent with the new data-based metrics. This should serve as a warning bell to the larger community that not all is well with current generation of ocean carbon cycle models. At the same time, this highlights the danger in simply using the available models to represent the state-of-the-art modeling without considering the credibility of each model.

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