Subjective judgement vs. market idiosyncasies: exploring influences on the favourite longshot bias in European betting markets
Subjective judgement vs. market idiosyncasies: exploring influences on the favourite longshot bias in European betting markets
A dataset of 55,880 football events is analyzed to explore the favourite longshot bias in the bookmaker betting market. Limited dependent variable modelling of game outcomes is employed to identify sources of variation in the observed bias. It is concluded that it is consistently expressed through time, but varies significantly across leagues. It is shown that the bias is caused by bookmakers offering better odds for popular bets in order to increase their customer basis. Finally, it is proved that league specific fundamental information causes variation in the magnitude of the bias.
Oikonomidis, Anastasios
3a9f5674-08ab-4f9f-9285-bb929dce146c
Johnson, Johnnie
6d9f1a51-38a8-4011-a792-bfc82040fac4
12 July 2010
Oikonomidis, Anastasios
3a9f5674-08ab-4f9f-9285-bb929dce146c
Johnson, Johnnie
6d9f1a51-38a8-4011-a792-bfc82040fac4
Oikonomidis, Anastasios and Johnson, Johnnie
(2010)
Subjective judgement vs. market idiosyncasies: exploring influences on the favourite longshot bias in European betting markets.
24th European Conference on Operational Research (EURO XXIV), , Lisbon, Portugal.
10 - 13 Jul 2010.
Record type:
Conference or Workshop Item
(Paper)
Abstract
A dataset of 55,880 football events is analyzed to explore the favourite longshot bias in the bookmaker betting market. Limited dependent variable modelling of game outcomes is employed to identify sources of variation in the observed bias. It is concluded that it is consistently expressed through time, but varies significantly across leagues. It is shown that the bias is caused by bookmakers offering better odds for popular bets in order to increase their customer basis. Finally, it is proved that league specific fundamental information causes variation in the magnitude of the bias.
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Published date: 12 July 2010
Venue - Dates:
24th European Conference on Operational Research (EURO XXIV), , Lisbon, Portugal, 2010-07-10 - 2010-07-13
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 161075
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/161075
PURE UUID: 4f9a0e03-8c63-4945-9428-fb4510ad9ff2
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Date deposited: 29 Jul 2010 11:55
Last modified: 10 Dec 2021 18:25
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Contributors
Author:
Anastasios Oikonomidis
Author:
Johnnie Johnson
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