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Subjective judgement vs. market idiosyncasies: exploriong influences on the favourite longshot bias in European betting markets

Oikonomidis, Anastasios and Johnson, Johnnie (2010) Subjective judgement vs. market idiosyncasies: exploriong influences on the favourite longshot bias in European betting markets At 24th European Conference on Operational Research, Portugal. 11 - 14 Jul 2010.

Record type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)

Abstract

A dataset of 55,880 football events is analyzed to explore the favourite longshot bias in the bookmaker betting market. Limited dependent variable modelling of game outcomes is employed to identify sources of variation in the observed bias. It is concluded that it is consistently expressed through time, but varies significantly across leagues. It is shown that the bias is caused by bookmakers offering better odds for popular bets in order to increase their customer basis. Finally, it is proved that league specific fundamental information causes variation in the magnitude of the bias.

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More information

e-pub ahead of print date: 12 July 2010
Venue - Dates: 24th European Conference on Operational Research, Portugal, 2010-07-11 - 2010-07-14

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 161075
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/161075
PURE UUID: 4f9a0e03-8c63-4945-9428-fb4510ad9ff2

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 29 Jul 2010 11:55
Last modified: 18 Jul 2017 12:34

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Contributors

Author: Anastasios Oikonomidis
Author: Johnnie Johnson

University divisions

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