Subjective judgement vs. market idiosyncasies: exploriong influences on the favourite longshot bias in European betting markets


Oikonomidis, Anastasios and Johnson, Johnnie (2010) Subjective judgement vs. market idiosyncasies: exploriong influences on the favourite longshot bias in European betting markets At 24th European Conference on Operational Research, Portugal. 11 - 14 Jul 2010.

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Description/Abstract

A dataset of 55,880 football events is analyzed to explore the favourite longshot bias in the bookmaker betting market. Limited dependent variable modelling of game outcomes is employed to identify sources of variation in the observed bias. It is concluded that it is consistently expressed through time, but varies significantly across leagues. It is shown that the bias is caused by bookmakers offering better odds for popular bets in order to increase their customer basis. Finally, it is proved that league specific fundamental information causes variation in the magnitude of the bias.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Venue - Dates: 24th European Conference on Operational Research, Portugal, 2010-07-11 - 2010-07-14
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ePrint ID: 161075
Date :
Date Event
12 July 2010e-pub ahead of print
Date Deposited: 29 Jul 2010 11:55
Last Modified: 18 Apr 2017 03:48
Further Information:Google Scholar
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/161075

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