Predictability of future economic growth and the credibility of monetary regimes in Germany, 1870 - 2003
Predictability of future economic growth and the credibility of monetary regimes in Germany, 1870 - 2003
Our study tries to quantify the predictability of economic growth and links it to the capability of regimes to fight against inflation. A regime with a high persistence of inflation and, hence, low credibility exhibits a high level of predictability of economic growth using the yield curve as indicator. Based on structural VAR models, we evaluate the credibility of monetary regimes in Germany from 1870 to 2003. The period of the Classical Gold Standard exhibited the highest credibility compared to the interwar period, the Bretton Woods and free float era. The reliability of the Bretton Woods agreement deteriorated years before the official breakdown in 1971
401-404
Kling, Gerhard
feea1f9e-c49a-4d9c-b688-ec839cef9624
Baltzer, Markus
f16453a3-a053-429a-a21f-7cfe4e1b3c11
May 2007
Kling, Gerhard
feea1f9e-c49a-4d9c-b688-ec839cef9624
Baltzer, Markus
f16453a3-a053-429a-a21f-7cfe4e1b3c11
Kling, Gerhard and Baltzer, Markus
(2007)
Predictability of future economic growth and the credibility of monetary regimes in Germany, 1870 - 2003.
Applied Economics Letters, 14 (6), .
(doi:10.1080/13504850500461456).
Abstract
Our study tries to quantify the predictability of economic growth and links it to the capability of regimes to fight against inflation. A regime with a high persistence of inflation and, hence, low credibility exhibits a high level of predictability of economic growth using the yield curve as indicator. Based on structural VAR models, we evaluate the credibility of monetary regimes in Germany from 1870 to 2003. The period of the Classical Gold Standard exhibited the highest credibility compared to the interwar period, the Bretton Woods and free float era. The reliability of the Bretton Woods agreement deteriorated years before the official breakdown in 1971
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Published date: May 2007
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Local EPrints ID: 165723
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/165723
ISSN: 1350-4851
PURE UUID: a6d84472-6d7e-44e3-baa9-efe92d99ae7b
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Date deposited: 20 Oct 2010 07:36
Last modified: 14 Mar 2024 02:11
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Author:
Gerhard Kling
Author:
Markus Baltzer
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