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Challenges of modeling depth-integrated marine primary productivity over multiple decades: A case study at BATS and HOT

Challenges of modeling depth-integrated marine primary productivity over multiple decades: A case study at BATS and HOT
Challenges of modeling depth-integrated marine primary productivity over multiple decades: A case study at BATS and HOT
The performance of 36 models (22 ocean color models and 14 biogeochemical ocean circulation models (BOGCMs)) that estimate depth-integrated marine net primary productivity (NPP) was assessed by comparing their output to in situ 14C data at the Bermuda Atlantic Time series Study (BATS) and the Hawaii Ocean Time series (HOT) over nearly two decades. Specifically, skill was assessed based on the models' ability to estimate the observed mean, variability, and trends of NPP. At both sites, more than 90% of the models underestimated mean NPP, with the average bias of the BOGCMs being nearly twice that of the ocean color models. However, the difference in overall skill between the best BOGCM and the best ocean color model at each site was not significant. Between 1989 and 2007, in situ NPP at BATS and HOT increased by an average of nearly 2% per year and was positively correlated to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation index. The majority of ocean color models produced in situ NPP trends that were closer to the observed trends when chlorophyll-a was derived from high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), rather than fluorometric or SeaWiFS data. However, this was a function of time such that average trend magnitude was more accurately estimated over longer time periods. Among BOGCMs, only two individual models successfully produced an increasing NPP trend (one model at each site). We caution against the use of models to assess multiannual changes in NPP over short time periods. Ocean color model estimates of NPP trends could improve if more high quality HPLC chlorophyll-a time series were available.
0886-6236
GB3020
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Asanuma, Ichio
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Scardi, Michele
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Uitz, Julia
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Vichi, Marcello
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Waters, Kirk
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Westberry, Toby K.
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Yool, Andrew
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Saba, Vincent S., Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M., Carr, Mary-Elena, Antoine, David, Armstrong, Robert A., Asanuma, Ichio, Aumont, Olivier, Bates, Nicholas R., Behrenfeld, Michael J., Bennington, Val, Bopp, Laurent, Bruggeman, Jorn, Buitenhuis, Erik T., Church, Matthew J., Ciotti, Aurea M., Doney, Scott C., Dowell, Mark, Dunne, John, Dutkiewicz, Stephanie, Gregg, Watson, Hoepffner, Nicolas, Hyde, Kimberly J. W., Ishizaka, Joji, Kameda, Takahiko, Karl, David M., Lima, Ivan, Lomas, Michael W., Marra, John, McKinley, Galen A., Mélin, Frédéric, Moore, J. Keith, Morel, André, O'Reilly, John, Salihoglu, Baris, Scardi, Michele, Smyth, Tim J., Tang, Shilin, Tjiputra, Jerry, Uitz, Julia, Vichi, Marcello, Waters, Kirk, Westberry, Toby K. and Yool, Andrew (2010) Challenges of modeling depth-integrated marine primary productivity over multiple decades: A case study at BATS and HOT. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 24 (3), GB3020. (doi:10.1029/2009GB003655).

Record type: Article

Abstract

The performance of 36 models (22 ocean color models and 14 biogeochemical ocean circulation models (BOGCMs)) that estimate depth-integrated marine net primary productivity (NPP) was assessed by comparing their output to in situ 14C data at the Bermuda Atlantic Time series Study (BATS) and the Hawaii Ocean Time series (HOT) over nearly two decades. Specifically, skill was assessed based on the models' ability to estimate the observed mean, variability, and trends of NPP. At both sites, more than 90% of the models underestimated mean NPP, with the average bias of the BOGCMs being nearly twice that of the ocean color models. However, the difference in overall skill between the best BOGCM and the best ocean color model at each site was not significant. Between 1989 and 2007, in situ NPP at BATS and HOT increased by an average of nearly 2% per year and was positively correlated to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation index. The majority of ocean color models produced in situ NPP trends that were closer to the observed trends when chlorophyll-a was derived from high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), rather than fluorometric or SeaWiFS data. However, this was a function of time such that average trend magnitude was more accurately estimated over longer time periods. Among BOGCMs, only two individual models successfully produced an increasing NPP trend (one model at each site). We caution against the use of models to assess multiannual changes in NPP over short time periods. Ocean color model estimates of NPP trends could improve if more high quality HPLC chlorophyll-a time series were available.

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Published date: 15 September 2010
Organisations: Marine Systems Modelling

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Local EPrints ID: 166069
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/166069
ISSN: 0886-6236
PURE UUID: 13093404-5059-4b17-8033-c6e472c51fd0

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Date deposited: 21 Oct 2010 13:49
Last modified: 14 Mar 2024 02:12

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Contributors

Author: Vincent S. Saba
Author: Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs
Author: Mary-Elena Carr
Author: David Antoine
Author: Robert A. Armstrong
Author: Ichio Asanuma
Author: Olivier Aumont
Author: Nicholas R. Bates
Author: Michael J. Behrenfeld
Author: Val Bennington
Author: Laurent Bopp
Author: Jorn Bruggeman
Author: Erik T. Buitenhuis
Author: Matthew J. Church
Author: Aurea M. Ciotti
Author: Scott C. Doney
Author: Mark Dowell
Author: John Dunne
Author: Stephanie Dutkiewicz
Author: Watson Gregg
Author: Nicolas Hoepffner
Author: Kimberly J. W. Hyde
Author: Joji Ishizaka
Author: Takahiko Kameda
Author: David M. Karl
Author: Ivan Lima
Author: Michael W. Lomas
Author: John Marra
Author: Galen A. McKinley
Author: Frédéric Mélin
Author: J. Keith Moore
Author: André Morel
Author: John O'Reilly
Author: Baris Salihoglu
Author: Michele Scardi
Author: Tim J. Smyth
Author: Shilin Tang
Author: Jerry Tjiputra
Author: Julia Uitz
Author: Marcello Vichi
Author: Kirk Waters
Author: Toby K. Westberry
Author: Andrew Yool

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