Using Age and Spatial Flow Structures in the Indirect Estimation of Migration Streams

Abstract

This paper presents a modeling strategy for describing and estimating interregional migration flows. The categorical log-linear model is used to demonstrate various approaches to estimation, including direct and indirect methods. And estimates of known data on interdivisional migration patterns in the United States during the 1995-2000 period are used to illustrate the effectiveness of the various log-linear models. The important aspects of the modeling strategy presented in this paper include parameter interpretation, incorporation of auxiliary or a priori information, and assessment of the various model predictions. The results show that capturing the interactions between origins and destinations are very important for accurate predictions.

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