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Refining the criteria for stalled fertility declines: an application to rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, 1990-2005

Moultrie, Tom A., Hosegood, Victoria, McGrath, Nuala, Hill, Caterina, Herbst, Kobus and Newell, Marie-Louise (2008) Refining the criteria for stalled fertility declines: an application to rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, 1990-2005 Studies in Family Planning, 39, (1), pp. 39-48. (doi:10.1111/j.1728-4465.2008.00149.x). (PMID:18540522).

Record type: Article


Stalled fertility declines have been identified in several regions across the developing world, but the current conceptualization of a stalled fertility decline is poorly theorized and does not lend itself to objective measurement. We propose a more rigorous and statistically testable definition of stalled fertility decline that can be applied to time-series data. We then illustrate the utility of our definition through its application to data from rural South Africa for the period 1990-2005 collected from a demographic surveillance site. Application of the approach suggests that fertility decline has indeed stalled in rural KwaZulu-Natal, at about three children per woman. The stall, some 20 percent above the replacement fertility level, does not appear to be associated with a rise in wanted fertility or attenuated access to contraceptive methods. This identification of a stalled fertility decline provides the first evidence of such a stall in southern Africa, the region with the lowest fertility levels in sub-Saharan Africa.

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e-pub ahead of print date: February 2008
Published date: March 2008


Local EPrints ID: 184649
ISSN: 0039-3665
PURE UUID: da02b7b6-9e0f-4bee-bf34-1ddb6ae9f990
ORCID for Victoria Hosegood: ORCID iD

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Date deposited: 06 May 2011 10:25
Last modified: 18 Jul 2017 11:51

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Author: Tom A. Moultrie
Author: Nuala McGrath
Author: Caterina Hill
Author: Kobus Herbst
Author: Marie-Louise Newell

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