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Individualistic species limitations of climate-induced range expansions generated by meso-scale dispersal barriers

Individualistic species limitations of climate-induced range expansions generated by meso-scale dispersal barriers
Individualistic species limitations of climate-induced range expansions generated by meso-scale dispersal barriers
Aim? Evidence indicates that species are responding to climate change through distributional range shifts that track suitable climatic conditions. We aim to elucidate the role of meso-scale dispersal barriers in climate-tracking responses.

Location? South coast of England (the English Channel).

Methods? Historical distributional data of four intertidal invertebrate species were logistically regressed against sea surface temperature (SST) to determine a climate envelope. This envelope was used to estimate the expected climate-tracking response since 1990 along the coast, which was compared with observed range expansions. A hydrodynamic modelling approach was used to identify dispersal barriers and explore disparities between expected and observed climate tracking.

Results? Range shifts detected by field survey over the past 20 years were less than those predicted by the changes that have occurred in SST. Hydrodynamic model simulations indicated that physical barriers produced by complex tidal currents have variably restricted dispersal of pelagic larvae amongst the four species.

Main conclusions? We provide the first evidence that meso-scale hydrodynamic barriers have limited climate-induced range shifts and demonstrate that life history traits affect the ability of species to overcome such barriers. This suggests that current forecasts may be flawed, both by overestimating range shifts and by underestimating climatic tolerances of species. This has implications for our understanding of climate change impacts on global biodiversity.
1366-9516
275-286
Keith, Sally A.
fb60e05b-d6ad-41a7-b014-7fb9f7de4e0c
Herbert, Roger J.H.
b30b2efb-fec1-4fb9-8b96-57626de041fa
Norton, Paul A.
ea194257-c1c2-48f3-b4d3-c38578956637
Hawkins, Stephen J.
758fe1c1-30cd-4ed1-bb65-2471dc7c11fa
Newton, Adrian C.
33e105a6-2f1d-40e6-a7b2-05fd84a99137
Keith, Sally A.
fb60e05b-d6ad-41a7-b014-7fb9f7de4e0c
Herbert, Roger J.H.
b30b2efb-fec1-4fb9-8b96-57626de041fa
Norton, Paul A.
ea194257-c1c2-48f3-b4d3-c38578956637
Hawkins, Stephen J.
758fe1c1-30cd-4ed1-bb65-2471dc7c11fa
Newton, Adrian C.
33e105a6-2f1d-40e6-a7b2-05fd84a99137

Keith, Sally A., Herbert, Roger J.H., Norton, Paul A., Hawkins, Stephen J. and Newton, Adrian C. (2011) Individualistic species limitations of climate-induced range expansions generated by meso-scale dispersal barriers. Diversity and Distributions, 17 (2), 275-286. (doi:10.1111/j.1472-4642.2010.00734.x).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Aim? Evidence indicates that species are responding to climate change through distributional range shifts that track suitable climatic conditions. We aim to elucidate the role of meso-scale dispersal barriers in climate-tracking responses.

Location? South coast of England (the English Channel).

Methods? Historical distributional data of four intertidal invertebrate species were logistically regressed against sea surface temperature (SST) to determine a climate envelope. This envelope was used to estimate the expected climate-tracking response since 1990 along the coast, which was compared with observed range expansions. A hydrodynamic modelling approach was used to identify dispersal barriers and explore disparities between expected and observed climate tracking.

Results? Range shifts detected by field survey over the past 20 years were less than those predicted by the changes that have occurred in SST. Hydrodynamic model simulations indicated that physical barriers produced by complex tidal currents have variably restricted dispersal of pelagic larvae amongst the four species.

Main conclusions? We provide the first evidence that meso-scale hydrodynamic barriers have limited climate-induced range shifts and demonstrate that life history traits affect the ability of species to overcome such barriers. This suggests that current forecasts may be flawed, both by overestimating range shifts and by underestimating climatic tolerances of species. This has implications for our understanding of climate change impacts on global biodiversity.

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Published date: 2011

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 187741
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/187741
ISSN: 1366-9516
PURE UUID: 0da88725-67a8-413b-af1a-26ac39b4bdfb

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Date deposited: 18 May 2011 09:16
Last modified: 18 Nov 2019 20:59

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