Complex interactions in a rapidly changing world: responses of rocky shore communities to recent climate change

Abstract

Warming of the planet has accelerated in recent years and is predicted to continue over
the next 50 to 100 yr. Evidence of responses to present warming in marine ecosystems include shifts
in the geographic range of species as well as in the composition of pelagic and demersal fish, benthic
and intertidal assemblages. Here we provide a review of the changes in geographic distributions and
population abundance of species detected on rocky shores of the NE Atlantic over the last 60 yr. This
period encompassed the warm 1950s, a colder period between 1963 and the late 1980s and the recent
period of accelerating warming to levels above those of the 1950s. The likely consequences of these
responses are then explored. To do this, a summary of the dynamic balance between grazers,
macroalgae and barnacles in structuring mid-shore communities is given before outlining experimental
work on interactions between key components of rocky shore communities. Modelling and
quantitative forecasting were used to predict changes in community composition and dynamics in a
warmer world and their consequences for ecosystem functioning discussed. We then identify areas
that need further work before making a case for the use of rocky shore species not just as inexpensive
indicators of change offshore, but as tractable models to explore the direct and indirect effects of
climate change in marine and coastal ecosystems. We also provide a societal perspective emphasising
the value of long-term studies in informing adaptation to climate change.

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