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Using expert elicitation to define successful adaptation to climate change

Using expert elicitation to define successful adaptation to climate change
Using expert elicitation to define successful adaptation to climate change
This paper develops definitions of adaptation and successful adaptation to climate change, with a view to evaluating adaptations. There is little consensus on the definition of adapting to climate change in existing debates or on the criteria by which adaptation actions can be deemed successful or sustainable. In this paper, a variant of the Delphi technique is used to elicit expert opinion on a definition of successful adaptation to climate change. Through an iterative process, expert respondents coalesced around a definition based on risk and vulnerability and agreed that a transparent and acceptable definition should reflect impacts on sustainability. According to the final definition, agreed by the Delphi panel, successful adaptation is any adjustment that reduces the risks associated with climate change, or vulnerability to climate change impacts, to a predetermined level, without compromising economic, social, and environmental sustainability.
expert elicitation, successful adaptation, climate change
810-819
Doria, Miguel de França
fa567754-9d68-495f-a7d0-500d107bdfa8
Boyd, Emily
1cba87e3-cba6-4135-abaa-5f86702fa10e
Tompkins, Emma L.
a6116704-7140-4e37-bea1-2cbf39b138c3
Adger, W. Neil
880deff5-3dde-429f-9b50-4366c54bcfe7
Doria, Miguel de França
fa567754-9d68-495f-a7d0-500d107bdfa8
Boyd, Emily
1cba87e3-cba6-4135-abaa-5f86702fa10e
Tompkins, Emma L.
a6116704-7140-4e37-bea1-2cbf39b138c3
Adger, W. Neil
880deff5-3dde-429f-9b50-4366c54bcfe7

Doria, Miguel de França, Boyd, Emily, Tompkins, Emma L. and Adger, W. Neil (2009) Using expert elicitation to define successful adaptation to climate change. Environmental Science & Policy, 12 (7), 810-819. (doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2009.04.001).

Record type: Article

Abstract

This paper develops definitions of adaptation and successful adaptation to climate change, with a view to evaluating adaptations. There is little consensus on the definition of adapting to climate change in existing debates or on the criteria by which adaptation actions can be deemed successful or sustainable. In this paper, a variant of the Delphi technique is used to elicit expert opinion on a definition of successful adaptation to climate change. Through an iterative process, expert respondents coalesced around a definition based on risk and vulnerability and agreed that a transparent and acceptable definition should reflect impacts on sustainability. According to the final definition, agreed by the Delphi panel, successful adaptation is any adjustment that reduces the risks associated with climate change, or vulnerability to climate change impacts, to a predetermined level, without compromising economic, social, and environmental sustainability.

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More information

e-pub ahead of print date: 9 May 2009
Published date: November 2009
Keywords: expert elicitation, successful adaptation, climate change
Organisations: Global Env Change & Earth Observation

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 200231
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/200231
PURE UUID: 06d4d0d8-8745-477e-8037-8b3afb4cc9ab
ORCID for Emma L. Tompkins: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-4825-9797

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 19 Oct 2011 09:41
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 03:39

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Contributors

Author: Miguel de França Doria
Author: Emily Boyd
Author: W. Neil Adger

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