Abrupt climate change
Abrupt climate change
Large, abrupt, and widespread climate changes with major impacts have occurred repeatedly in the past, when the Earth system was forced across thresholds. Although abrupt climate changes can occur for many reasons, it is conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the probability of large, abrupt events. Were such an event to recur, the economic and ecological impacts could be large and potentially serious. Unpredictability exhibited near climate thresholds in simple models shows that some uncertainty will always be associated with projections. In light of these uncertainties, policy-makers should consider expanding research into abrupt climate change, improving monitoring systems, and taking actions designed to enhance the adaptability and resilience of ecosystems and economies.
CLIMATIC CHANGES, PALAEOCLIMATE, METEOROLOGY
2005-2010
Alley, R.B.
7cab3fbf-2328-4372-820c-3970110d33df
Marotze, J.
8b0b1668-ac8f-40cc-a3e6-3f69634d2beb
2003
Alley, R.B.
7cab3fbf-2328-4372-820c-3970110d33df
Marotze, J.
8b0b1668-ac8f-40cc-a3e6-3f69634d2beb
Abstract
Large, abrupt, and widespread climate changes with major impacts have occurred repeatedly in the past, when the Earth system was forced across thresholds. Although abrupt climate changes can occur for many reasons, it is conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the probability of large, abrupt events. Were such an event to recur, the economic and ecological impacts could be large and potentially serious. Unpredictability exhibited near climate thresholds in simple models shows that some uncertainty will always be associated with projections. In light of these uncertainties, policy-makers should consider expanding research into abrupt climate change, improving monitoring systems, and taking actions designed to enhance the adaptability and resilience of ecosystems and economies.
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Published date: 2003
Keywords:
CLIMATIC CHANGES, PALAEOCLIMATE, METEOROLOGY
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Local EPrints ID: 2004
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/2004
ISSN: 0036-8075
PURE UUID: 3ceb95a5-d873-446e-81d0-4b2f538a2857
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Date deposited: 07 May 2004
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 04:44
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Author:
R.B. Alley
Author:
J. Marotze
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