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Predicting the impacts and socio-economic consequences of climate change on global marine ecosystems and fisheries

Predicting the impacts and socio-economic consequences of climate change on global marine ecosystems and fisheries
Predicting the impacts and socio-economic consequences of climate change on global marine ecosystems and fisheries
Climate change is accelerating and is already affecting the marine environment. Estimating the effects of climate change on the production of fish resources, and their dependent societies, is complex because of:

difficulties of downscaling Global Climate Models (GCM) to scales of biological relevance;

uncertainties over future net primary production and its transfer through the food chain;

difficulties in separating the multiple stressors affecting fish production; and

inadequate methodology to estimate human vulnerabilities to these changes.

QUEST_Fish, a research project led from the UK, is addressing some of these challenges through an innovative, multi-disciplinary approach focused on estimating the added impacts that climate change is likely to cause, and the subsequent additional risks and vulnerabilities of these effects for human societies. The project uses coupled shelf seas biophysical ecosystem models forced by GCM forecasts to predict ecosystem functioning in past, present, and future time-slices. For each slice, and for 20 Large Marine Ecosystems, we estimate plankton production and use this to estimate size-based fish production through models based on macro-ecological theory. Ways of assessing vulnerability of fisheries to future climate change are developed, including the market consequences for fish-based global commodities. The results provide a new framework and new insights into the complex interactions between humans and nature.
1444334670
14
Wiley-Blackwell
Barange, Manuel
e23cae35-9111-4c07-86b0-ef87ff24a098
Allen, Icarus
be94ebfd-418c-489a-8a3d-387286d2dc3e
Allison, Eddie
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Badjeck, Marie-Caroline
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Blanchard, Julia
cc86a8d0-fe1c-4615-9ab6-02938f50129e
Drakeford, Benjamin
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Dulvy, Nicholas K
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Harle, James
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Holmes, Robert
ed17b84f-d4e9-4782-abab-2be8a7170d8e
Holt, Jason
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Jennings, Simon
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Lowe, Jason
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Merino, Gorka
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Mullon, Christia
9dcab6f9-4ef7-4286-af75-498cbcc7896a
Piling, Graham
93e3810b-8fc0-4e91-b8d6-9e43b56ed952
Rodwell, Lynda
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Tompkins, Emma
a6116704-7140-4e37-bea1-2cbf39b138c3
Werner, Francisco
f0a3d8c0-27d5-4a89-8dfd-670446bc63e9
Ommer, Rosemary
Perry, Ian
Cochrane, Kevern L.
Cury, Philippe
Barange, Manuel
e23cae35-9111-4c07-86b0-ef87ff24a098
Allen, Icarus
be94ebfd-418c-489a-8a3d-387286d2dc3e
Allison, Eddie
7cc50375-e3a6-4806-9a96-ff5857bf54a8
Badjeck, Marie-Caroline
90ec3858-0f7c-4ab8-bc77-69c2df41fe71
Blanchard, Julia
cc86a8d0-fe1c-4615-9ab6-02938f50129e
Drakeford, Benjamin
11ee82b2-8059-4a4f-86fb-25c47744ef47
Dulvy, Nicholas K
7227e860-7621-48fa-8dc2-872a198b0540
Harle, James
b59d8925-1e59-42d4-b08f-823fec3b701e
Holmes, Robert
ed17b84f-d4e9-4782-abab-2be8a7170d8e
Holt, Jason
6e0276a6-1a9b-4514-bc5f-9d04571b7687
Jennings, Simon
38694b49-bd00-4b30-b300-92c416eff01f
Lowe, Jason
728c4904-22ef-448f-80d9-f319f5b513f0
Merino, Gorka
fd5d8914-b557-4466-9975-f03af3e803a7
Mullon, Christia
9dcab6f9-4ef7-4286-af75-498cbcc7896a
Piling, Graham
93e3810b-8fc0-4e91-b8d6-9e43b56ed952
Rodwell, Lynda
554108f7-c596-424a-81c7-949c878d5c8c
Tompkins, Emma
a6116704-7140-4e37-bea1-2cbf39b138c3
Werner, Francisco
f0a3d8c0-27d5-4a89-8dfd-670446bc63e9
Ommer, Rosemary
Perry, Ian
Cochrane, Kevern L.
Cury, Philippe

Barange, Manuel, Allen, Icarus, Allison, Eddie, Badjeck, Marie-Caroline, Blanchard, Julia, Drakeford, Benjamin, Dulvy, Nicholas K, Harle, James, Holmes, Robert, Holt, Jason, Jennings, Simon, Lowe, Jason, Merino, Gorka, Mullon, Christia, Piling, Graham, Rodwell, Lynda, Tompkins, Emma and Werner, Francisco (2011) Predicting the impacts and socio-economic consequences of climate change on global marine ecosystems and fisheries. In, Ommer, Rosemary, Perry, Ian, Cochrane, Kevern L. and Cury, Philippe (eds.) World Fisheries: a Socio-Ecological Analysis, Fish and Aquatic Resources. (Fish and Aquatic Resources, , (doi:10.1002/9781444392241.ch3), 14) Oxford, GB. Wiley-Blackwell. (doi:10.1002/9781444392241.ch3).

Record type: Book Section

Abstract

Climate change is accelerating and is already affecting the marine environment. Estimating the effects of climate change on the production of fish resources, and their dependent societies, is complex because of:

difficulties of downscaling Global Climate Models (GCM) to scales of biological relevance;

uncertainties over future net primary production and its transfer through the food chain;

difficulties in separating the multiple stressors affecting fish production; and

inadequate methodology to estimate human vulnerabilities to these changes.

QUEST_Fish, a research project led from the UK, is addressing some of these challenges through an innovative, multi-disciplinary approach focused on estimating the added impacts that climate change is likely to cause, and the subsequent additional risks and vulnerabilities of these effects for human societies. The project uses coupled shelf seas biophysical ecosystem models forced by GCM forecasts to predict ecosystem functioning in past, present, and future time-slices. For each slice, and for 20 Large Marine Ecosystems, we estimate plankton production and use this to estimate size-based fish production through models based on macro-ecological theory. Ways of assessing vulnerability of fisheries to future climate change are developed, including the market consequences for fish-based global commodities. The results provide a new framework and new insights into the complex interactions between humans and nature.

Full text not available from this repository.

More information

Published date: 17 March 2011
Organisations: Global Env Change & Earth Observation, National Oceanography Centre

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 202815
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/202815
ISBN: 1444334670
PURE UUID: cd8992f0-44a5-488c-82df-d0c34522a986

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Date deposited: 10 Nov 2011 11:28
Last modified: 09 Apr 2019 16:32

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Contributors

Author: Manuel Barange
Author: Icarus Allen
Author: Eddie Allison
Author: Marie-Caroline Badjeck
Author: Julia Blanchard
Author: Benjamin Drakeford
Author: Nicholas K Dulvy
Author: James Harle
Author: Robert Holmes
Author: Jason Holt
Author: Simon Jennings
Author: Jason Lowe
Author: Gorka Merino
Author: Christia Mullon
Author: Graham Piling
Author: Lynda Rodwell
Author: Emma Tompkins
Author: Francisco Werner
Editor: Rosemary Ommer
Editor: Ian Perry
Editor: Kevern L. Cochrane
Editor: Philippe Cury

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