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Predicting the impacts and socio-economic consequences of climate change on global marine ecosystems and fisheries

Barange, Manuel, Allen, Icarus, Allison, Eddie, Badjeck, Marie-Caroline, Blanchard, Julia, Drakeford, Benjamin, Dulvy, Nicholas K, Harle, James, Holmes, Robert, Holt, Jason, Jennings, Simon, Lowe, Jason, Merino, Gorka, Mullon, Christia, Piling, Graham, Rodwell, Lynda, Tompkins, Emma and Werner, Francisco (2011) Predicting the impacts and socio-economic consequences of climate change on global marine ecosystems and fisheries In, Ommer, Rosemary, Perry, Ian, Cochrane, Kevern L. and Cury, Philippe (eds.) World Fisheries: a Socio-Ecological Analysis, Fish and Aquatic Resources. Oxford, GB, Wiley-Blackwell (Fish and Aquatic Resources, 14). (doi:10.1002/9781444392241.ch3).

Record type: Book Section

Abstract

Climate change is accelerating and is already affecting the marine environment. Estimating the effects of climate change on the production of fish resources, and their dependent societies, is complex because of:

difficulties of downscaling Global Climate Models (GCM) to scales of biological relevance;

uncertainties over future net primary production and its transfer through the food chain;

difficulties in separating the multiple stressors affecting fish production; and

inadequate methodology to estimate human vulnerabilities to these changes.

QUEST_Fish, a research project led from the UK, is addressing some of these challenges through an innovative, multi-disciplinary approach focused on estimating the added impacts that climate change is likely to cause, and the subsequent additional risks and vulnerabilities of these effects for human societies. The project uses coupled shelf seas biophysical ecosystem models forced by GCM forecasts to predict ecosystem functioning in past, present, and future time-slices. For each slice, and for 20 Large Marine Ecosystems, we estimate plankton production and use this to estimate size-based fish production through models based on macro-ecological theory. Ways of assessing vulnerability of fisheries to future climate change are developed, including the market consequences for fish-based global commodities. The results provide a new framework and new insights into the complex interactions between humans and nature.

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More information

Published date: 17 March 2011
Organisations: Global Env Change & Earth Observation, National Oceanography Centre

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 202815
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/202815
ISBN: 1444334670
PURE UUID: cd8992f0-44a5-488c-82df-d0c34522a986

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 10 Nov 2011 11:28
Last modified: 18 Jul 2017 11:09

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Contributors

Author: Manuel Barange
Author: Icarus Allen
Author: Eddie Allison
Author: Marie-Caroline Badjeck
Author: Julia Blanchard
Author: Benjamin Drakeford
Author: Nicholas K Dulvy
Author: James Harle
Author: Robert Holmes
Author: Jason Holt
Author: Simon Jennings
Author: Jason Lowe
Author: Gorka Merino
Author: Christia Mullon
Author: Graham Piling
Author: Lynda Rodwell
Author: Emma Tompkins
Author: Francisco Werner
Editor: Rosemary Ommer
Editor: Ian Perry
Editor: Kevern L. Cochrane
Editor: Philippe Cury

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