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Prediction of childhood obesity by infancy weight gain: an individual-level meta-anlysis

Prediction of childhood obesity by infancy weight gain: an individual-level meta-anlysis
Prediction of childhood obesity by infancy weight gain: an individual-level meta-anlysis
To assess the predictive ability of infant weight gain on subsequent obesity we performed
a meta-analysis of individual-level data on 47 661 participants from 10 cohort
studies from the UK, France, Finland, Sweden, the US and Seychelles. For each
individual, weight SD scores at birth and age 1 year were calculated using the same
external reference (British 1990). Childhood obesity was defined by International
Obesity Task Force criteria. Each +1 unit increase in weight SD scores between 0 and
1 year conferred a twofold higher risk of childhood obesity (odds ratio = 1.97 [95%
confidence interval (CI) 1.83, 2.12]), and a 23% higher risk of adult obesity (odds
ratio = 1.23 [1.16, 1.30]), adjusted for sex, age and birthweight. There was little heterogeneity
between studies. A risk score for childhood obesity comprising weight gain
0–1 year, mother’s body mass index, birthweight and sex was generated in a random
50% selection of individuals from general population cohorts with available information
(n = 8236); this score showed moderate predictive ability in the remaining 50%
sample (area under receiving operating curve = 77% [95% CI 74, 80%]). A separate risk
score for childhood overweight showed similar predictive ability (area under receiving
operating curve = 76% [73, 79%]). In conclusion, infant weight gain showed a consistent
positive association with subsequent obesity. A risk score combining birthweight
and infant weight gain (or simply infant weight), together with mother’s body mass
index and sex may allow early stratification of infants at risk of childhood obesity.
childhood obesity, overweight, body mass index, infant weight gain, meta-analysis
0269-5022
19-26
Druet, Céline
bbb70c3a-d915-4560-8658-220782eb3052
Stettler, Nicolas
62bc7e34-65fe-4ca7-a38e-06a1ea643563
Sharp, Stephen
ab379003-8072-43cb-87e7-67e28a8226b8
Simmons, Rebecca K..
3430aa3e-0728-43b0-a3ab-21f6ab5de794
Cooper, Cyrus
e05f5612-b493-4273-9b71-9e0ce32bdad6
Davey Smith, George
0de6af8f-976a-477d-a944-a98d0c8c1ebb
Ekelund, Ulf
40094b66-216c-476e-886f-112ecf1833ef
Levy-Marchal, Claire
2f09decb-6c29-4901-bf09-135c5691af34
Jarvelin, Marjo-Ritta
693bfe10-47a0-4b6f-8cf2-fcb8f764e137
Kuh, Diana
4f3b51aa-21a0-4d68-be14-e1ed75448aaf
Ong, Ken K.
11be427c-95c2-4c09-9000-2a915a247885
Druet, Céline
bbb70c3a-d915-4560-8658-220782eb3052
Stettler, Nicolas
62bc7e34-65fe-4ca7-a38e-06a1ea643563
Sharp, Stephen
ab379003-8072-43cb-87e7-67e28a8226b8
Simmons, Rebecca K..
3430aa3e-0728-43b0-a3ab-21f6ab5de794
Cooper, Cyrus
e05f5612-b493-4273-9b71-9e0ce32bdad6
Davey Smith, George
0de6af8f-976a-477d-a944-a98d0c8c1ebb
Ekelund, Ulf
40094b66-216c-476e-886f-112ecf1833ef
Levy-Marchal, Claire
2f09decb-6c29-4901-bf09-135c5691af34
Jarvelin, Marjo-Ritta
693bfe10-47a0-4b6f-8cf2-fcb8f764e137
Kuh, Diana
4f3b51aa-21a0-4d68-be14-e1ed75448aaf
Ong, Ken K.
11be427c-95c2-4c09-9000-2a915a247885

Druet, Céline, Stettler, Nicolas, Sharp, Stephen, Simmons, Rebecca K.., Cooper, Cyrus, Davey Smith, George, Ekelund, Ulf, Levy-Marchal, Claire, Jarvelin, Marjo-Ritta, Kuh, Diana and Ong, Ken K. (2012) Prediction of childhood obesity by infancy weight gain: an individual-level meta-anlysis. Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology, 26 (1), 19-26. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-3016.2011.01213.x). (PMID:22150704)

Record type: Article

Abstract

To assess the predictive ability of infant weight gain on subsequent obesity we performed
a meta-analysis of individual-level data on 47 661 participants from 10 cohort
studies from the UK, France, Finland, Sweden, the US and Seychelles. For each
individual, weight SD scores at birth and age 1 year were calculated using the same
external reference (British 1990). Childhood obesity was defined by International
Obesity Task Force criteria. Each +1 unit increase in weight SD scores between 0 and
1 year conferred a twofold higher risk of childhood obesity (odds ratio = 1.97 [95%
confidence interval (CI) 1.83, 2.12]), and a 23% higher risk of adult obesity (odds
ratio = 1.23 [1.16, 1.30]), adjusted for sex, age and birthweight. There was little heterogeneity
between studies. A risk score for childhood obesity comprising weight gain
0–1 year, mother’s body mass index, birthweight and sex was generated in a random
50% selection of individuals from general population cohorts with available information
(n = 8236); this score showed moderate predictive ability in the remaining 50%
sample (area under receiving operating curve = 77% [95% CI 74, 80%]). A separate risk
score for childhood overweight showed similar predictive ability (area under receiving
operating curve = 76% [73, 79%]). In conclusion, infant weight gain showed a consistent
positive association with subsequent obesity. A risk score combining birthweight
and infant weight gain (or simply infant weight), together with mother’s body mass
index and sex may allow early stratification of infants at risk of childhood obesity.

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More information

e-pub ahead of print date: 1 August 2011
Published date: January 2012
Keywords: childhood obesity, overweight, body mass index, infant weight gain, meta-analysis
Organisations: Faculty of Medicine

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 208265
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/208265
ISSN: 0269-5022
PURE UUID: 9c5515d3-688f-43d9-92e8-86f36bd82c7a
ORCID for Cyrus Cooper: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-3510-0709

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Date deposited: 17 Jan 2012 16:48
Last modified: 10 Dec 2019 01:52

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Contributors

Author: Céline Druet
Author: Nicolas Stettler
Author: Stephen Sharp
Author: Rebecca K.. Simmons
Author: Cyrus Cooper ORCID iD
Author: George Davey Smith
Author: Ulf Ekelund
Author: Claire Levy-Marchal
Author: Marjo-Ritta Jarvelin
Author: Diana Kuh
Author: Ken K. Ong

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