The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

Enhancement and validation of the IDES orbital debris environment model

Enhancement and validation of the IDES orbital debris environment model
Enhancement and validation of the IDES orbital debris environment model
Orbital debris environment models are essential in predicting the characteristics of the entire debris environment, especially for altitude and size regimes where measurement data is sparse. Most models are also used to assess mission collision risk. The IDES (Integrated Debris Evolution Suite) simulation model has recently been upgraded by including a new sodium–potassium liquid coolant droplet source model and a new historical launch database. These and other features of IDES are described in detail. The accuracy of the IDES model is evaluated over a wide range of debris sizes by comparing model predictions to three major types of debris measurement data in low Earth orbit. For the large-size debris population, the model is compared with the spatial density distribution of the United States (US) Space Command Catalog. A radar simulation model is employed to predict the detection rates of mid-size debris in the field of view of the US Haystack radar. Finally, the small-size impact flux relative to a surface of the retrieved Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) spacecraft is predicted. At sub-millimetre sizes, the model currently under-predicts the debris environment encountered at low altitudes by approximately an order of magnitude. This is because other small-size debris sources, such as paint flakes have not yet been characterised. Due to the model enhancements, IDES exhibits good accuracy when predicting the debris environment at decimetre and centimetre sizes. Therefore, the validated initial conditions and the high fidelity future traffic model enables IDES to make long-term debris environment projections with more confidence
debris measurements, low earth orbit, model accuracy, modelling and simulation, orbital debris environment
1388-3828
1-19
Walker, R.J.
f4a81273-566d-455c-95fa-42162d468ff8
Stokes, P.H.
dc594094-2ed4-4e96-8935-869d1b301862
Wilkinson, J.E.
9eafbc2f-c8e8-4e56-b994-0157e2a621ee
Swinerd, G.G.
4aa174ec-d08c-4972-9986-966e17e072a0
Walker, R.J.
f4a81273-566d-455c-95fa-42162d468ff8
Stokes, P.H.
dc594094-2ed4-4e96-8935-869d1b301862
Wilkinson, J.E.
9eafbc2f-c8e8-4e56-b994-0157e2a621ee
Swinerd, G.G.
4aa174ec-d08c-4972-9986-966e17e072a0

Walker, R.J., Stokes, P.H., Wilkinson, J.E. and Swinerd, G.G. (1999) Enhancement and validation of the IDES orbital debris environment model. Space Debris, 1 (1), 1-19. (doi:10.1023/A:1010036330544).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Orbital debris environment models are essential in predicting the characteristics of the entire debris environment, especially for altitude and size regimes where measurement data is sparse. Most models are also used to assess mission collision risk. The IDES (Integrated Debris Evolution Suite) simulation model has recently been upgraded by including a new sodium–potassium liquid coolant droplet source model and a new historical launch database. These and other features of IDES are described in detail. The accuracy of the IDES model is evaluated over a wide range of debris sizes by comparing model predictions to three major types of debris measurement data in low Earth orbit. For the large-size debris population, the model is compared with the spatial density distribution of the United States (US) Space Command Catalog. A radar simulation model is employed to predict the detection rates of mid-size debris in the field of view of the US Haystack radar. Finally, the small-size impact flux relative to a surface of the retrieved Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) spacecraft is predicted. At sub-millimetre sizes, the model currently under-predicts the debris environment encountered at low altitudes by approximately an order of magnitude. This is because other small-size debris sources, such as paint flakes have not yet been characterised. Due to the model enhancements, IDES exhibits good accuracy when predicting the debris environment at decimetre and centimetre sizes. Therefore, the validated initial conditions and the high fidelity future traffic model enables IDES to make long-term debris environment projections with more confidence

This record has no associated files available for download.

More information

Published date: 1999
Keywords: debris measurements, low earth orbit, model accuracy, modelling and simulation, orbital debris environment

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 21581
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/21581
ISSN: 1388-3828
PURE UUID: 4f50e0b9-4a43-4a6b-aeb6-3c392a58afcf

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 08 Feb 2007
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 06:31

Export record

Altmetrics

Contributors

Author: R.J. Walker
Author: P.H. Stokes
Author: J.E. Wilkinson
Author: G.G. Swinerd

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×