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A new fast cloud propagator for use in the GEO regime

A new fast cloud propagator for use in the GEO regime
A new fast cloud propagator for use in the GEO regime
As the space debris population continues to increase, there is a growing need to develop models that can quickly and reliably characterise the future debris population. A number of fast debris propagators exist, which claim to be able to model the future environment to a high degree of accuracy. However, these propagators have limitations that only allow them to be used for certain debris size ranges or within certain altitude ranges, i.e. mostly low-Earth orbit (LEO) regions. To date, little work has been done in developing a debris propagator that can be used to quickly propagate debris in the geostationary (GEO) regime. The ability to develop a model capable of quickly and accurately characterising the long-term evolution of debris in the GEO regime is becoming ever more important as the GEO debris population continues to increase.

A new, GEO-dedicated, fast debris cloud propagator is proposed, which will propagate the debris cloud as a whole, rather than as the summation of a number of fragments or pseudo-fragments. The fast cloud propagator (FCP) first identifies the number and mass distributions of the debris fragments in six-dimensional elementspace and also identifies the distributions of the element relationships with one another, for example, the distribution of fragments in an eccentricity vs. inclination scatter plot. The means and 3-sigma values of these distributions are then propagated to the required epoch and the element number and mass distributions are re-created using the propagated mean and 3-sigma values. The new element relationships can also be recovered using the propagated distribution parameters and the debris cloud can thus be accurately re-created. This method gains a large speed increase over conventional propagators by only propagating the distribution parameters, a total of 25 objects, rather than individually propagating the large number of fragments found in the original debris cloud, as is usual practise.
Williams, D.N.
b0a22325-057f-4c97-bb77-9894578d744e
Swinerd, G.G.
4aa174ec-d08c-4972-9986-966e17e072a0
Lewis, H.G.
e9048cd8-c188-49cb-8e2a-45f6b316336a
Gittins, G.L.
b2070c29-1f22-4f0c-8013-681a968c2d7e
Williams, D.N.
b0a22325-057f-4c97-bb77-9894578d744e
Swinerd, G.G.
4aa174ec-d08c-4972-9986-966e17e072a0
Lewis, H.G.
e9048cd8-c188-49cb-8e2a-45f6b316336a
Gittins, G.L.
b2070c29-1f22-4f0c-8013-681a968c2d7e

Williams, D.N., Swinerd, G.G., Lewis, H.G. and Gittins, G.L. (2002) A new fast cloud propagator for use in the GEO regime. IAF COSPAR 2002: 34th Committee on Space Research Scientific Assembly: 2nd World Space Congress, Houston, United States. 09 - 18 Oct 2002. 6 pp .

Record type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)

Abstract

As the space debris population continues to increase, there is a growing need to develop models that can quickly and reliably characterise the future debris population. A number of fast debris propagators exist, which claim to be able to model the future environment to a high degree of accuracy. However, these propagators have limitations that only allow them to be used for certain debris size ranges or within certain altitude ranges, i.e. mostly low-Earth orbit (LEO) regions. To date, little work has been done in developing a debris propagator that can be used to quickly propagate debris in the geostationary (GEO) regime. The ability to develop a model capable of quickly and accurately characterising the long-term evolution of debris in the GEO regime is becoming ever more important as the GEO debris population continues to increase.

A new, GEO-dedicated, fast debris cloud propagator is proposed, which will propagate the debris cloud as a whole, rather than as the summation of a number of fragments or pseudo-fragments. The fast cloud propagator (FCP) first identifies the number and mass distributions of the debris fragments in six-dimensional elementspace and also identifies the distributions of the element relationships with one another, for example, the distribution of fragments in an eccentricity vs. inclination scatter plot. The means and 3-sigma values of these distributions are then propagated to the required epoch and the element number and mass distributions are re-created using the propagated mean and 3-sigma values. The new element relationships can also be recovered using the propagated distribution parameters and the debris cloud can thus be accurately re-created. This method gains a large speed increase over conventional propagators by only propagating the distribution parameters, a total of 25 objects, rather than individually propagating the large number of fragments found in the original debris cloud, as is usual practise.

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More information

Published date: 2002
Additional Information: Accepted Contributions - PEDAS1-B1.4. Space Debris
Venue - Dates: IAF COSPAR 2002: 34th Committee on Space Research Scientific Assembly: 2nd World Space Congress, Houston, United States, 2002-10-09 - 2002-10-18
Organisations: Engineering Sciences

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 22311
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/22311
PURE UUID: d3dce7ad-2e92-4e98-89e2-bbdf44f1b054

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 01 Jun 2006
Last modified: 22 Jul 2020 16:42

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