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A factorial analysis of the marine carbon cycle controls on atmospheric CO2

A factorial analysis of the marine carbon cycle controls on atmospheric CO2
A factorial analysis of the marine carbon cycle controls on atmospheric CO2
A factorial experiment with a new Earth system model of intermediate complexity is used to assess the sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 to organic, carbonate and solubility pumps, ocean circulation state, and climate feedback. An analysis of variance of the results reveals that the organic, carbonate, and solubility pumps act multiplicatively and account for 94% of the variance of atmospheric CO2. The organic pump explains 63% (89 ppm), the solubility pump 24% (55 ppm), the carbonate pump 6% (28 ppm), and ocean circulation 0.3% (12 ppm) of the variance. Removing all pumps increases atmospheric CO2 from 278 to 525 ppm. Including interactions with all the pumps increases the effects of ocean circulation from 12 to 56 ppm. However, the ocean circulation states used are unlikely to span the full range of possible states. Changes in Pacific circulation have more effect on atmospheric CO2 than Atlantic circulation.
atmospheric CO2, factorial, oceanic carbon pumps
0886-6236
1-12
Cameron, D.R.
e514368d-0e41-4a42-9c9e-a3d17eae3961
Lenton, T.M.
f2b4fe3d-ef5e-4c85-9677-bfc20c266b65
Ridgwell, A.J.
5169a9cf-4288-4112-a93f-3080a467924c
Shepherd, J.G.
f38de3ac-eb3b-403f-8767-c76be68d8bf2
Marsh, R.
702c2e7e-ac19-4019-abd9-a8614ab27717
Yool, A.
882aeb0d-dda0-405e-844c-65b68cce5017
Cameron, D.R.
e514368d-0e41-4a42-9c9e-a3d17eae3961
Lenton, T.M.
f2b4fe3d-ef5e-4c85-9677-bfc20c266b65
Ridgwell, A.J.
5169a9cf-4288-4112-a93f-3080a467924c
Shepherd, J.G.
f38de3ac-eb3b-403f-8767-c76be68d8bf2
Marsh, R.
702c2e7e-ac19-4019-abd9-a8614ab27717
Yool, A.
882aeb0d-dda0-405e-844c-65b68cce5017

Cameron, D.R., Lenton, T.M., Ridgwell, A.J., Shepherd, J.G., Marsh, R. and Yool, A. (2005) A factorial analysis of the marine carbon cycle controls on atmospheric CO2. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 19 (4), 1-12. (doi:10.1029/2005GB002489).

Record type: Article

Abstract

A factorial experiment with a new Earth system model of intermediate complexity is used to assess the sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 to organic, carbonate and solubility pumps, ocean circulation state, and climate feedback. An analysis of variance of the results reveals that the organic, carbonate, and solubility pumps act multiplicatively and account for 94% of the variance of atmospheric CO2. The organic pump explains 63% (89 ppm), the solubility pump 24% (55 ppm), the carbonate pump 6% (28 ppm), and ocean circulation 0.3% (12 ppm) of the variance. Removing all pumps increases atmospheric CO2 from 278 to 525 ppm. Including interactions with all the pumps increases the effects of ocean circulation from 12 to 56 ppm. However, the ocean circulation states used are unlikely to span the full range of possible states. Changes in Pacific circulation have more effect on atmospheric CO2 than Atlantic circulation.

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More information

Published date: 2005
Keywords: atmospheric CO2, factorial, oceanic carbon pumps

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 24129
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/24129
ISSN: 0886-6236
PURE UUID: efb1cedb-16eb-4350-8b26-1208e9a86e6e
ORCID for J.G. Shepherd: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-5230-4781

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 22 Mar 2006
Last modified: 16 Mar 2024 02:47

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Contributors

Author: D.R. Cameron
Author: T.M. Lenton
Author: A.J. Ridgwell
Author: J.G. Shepherd ORCID iD
Author: R. Marsh
Author: A. Yool

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