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A simulation to evaluate screening for Helicobacter pylori infection in the prevention of peptic ulcers and gastric cancers

A simulation to evaluate screening for Helicobacter pylori infection in the prevention of peptic ulcers and gastric cancers
A simulation to evaluate screening for Helicobacter pylori infection in the prevention of peptic ulcers and gastric cancers
A discrete event simulation model has evaluated a screening programme for Helicobacter pylori infection (H. pylori) in which individuals under the age of 50 years would be screened once. Eradication of H. pylori would reduce the peptic ulcer risk immediately and the gastric cancer risk after a fixed delay. The data were derived from published databases and peer reviewed papers. The simulation model, using variance reduction techniques, predicted that a screening programme would reduce morbidity and deaths but could cost around £19 million for England and Wales in the first year of screening. A factorial design analysis showed the sensitivity of key variables. An increase in the opportunistic testing was found significantly to reduce the impact of screening.
simulation, planning, screening, helicobacter pylori
1386-9620
249-258
Davies, Ruth
8111134a-4e4b-4c6c-a251-1ce8b94e648a
Crabbe, David
4cf76723-878b-41fe-8667-31b13241144c
Roderick, Paul
dbb3cd11-4c51-4844-982b-0eb30ad5085a
Goddard, Jonathan R.
a1869c62-61d7-4691-97b0-29acb727fc81
Raftery, James
de9dd294-3a0e-4756-8427-a4f2382495db
Patel, Praful
c92dd012-6d09-43b2-9fac-aaadcb42ea27
Davies, Ruth
8111134a-4e4b-4c6c-a251-1ce8b94e648a
Crabbe, David
4cf76723-878b-41fe-8667-31b13241144c
Roderick, Paul
dbb3cd11-4c51-4844-982b-0eb30ad5085a
Goddard, Jonathan R.
a1869c62-61d7-4691-97b0-29acb727fc81
Raftery, James
de9dd294-3a0e-4756-8427-a4f2382495db
Patel, Praful
c92dd012-6d09-43b2-9fac-aaadcb42ea27

Davies, Ruth, Crabbe, David, Roderick, Paul, Goddard, Jonathan R., Raftery, James and Patel, Praful (2002) A simulation to evaluate screening for Helicobacter pylori infection in the prevention of peptic ulcers and gastric cancers. Health Care Management Science, 5 (4), 249-258. (doi:10.1023/A:1020326005465).

Record type: Article

Abstract

A discrete event simulation model has evaluated a screening programme for Helicobacter pylori infection (H. pylori) in which individuals under the age of 50 years would be screened once. Eradication of H. pylori would reduce the peptic ulcer risk immediately and the gastric cancer risk after a fixed delay. The data were derived from published databases and peer reviewed papers. The simulation model, using variance reduction techniques, predicted that a screening programme would reduce morbidity and deaths but could cost around £19 million for England and Wales in the first year of screening. A factorial design analysis showed the sensitivity of key variables. An increase in the opportunistic testing was found significantly to reduce the impact of screening.

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More information

Published date: 2002
Keywords: simulation, planning, screening, helicobacter pylori

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 24320
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/24320
ISSN: 1386-9620
PURE UUID: d2e997bc-8aec-4d00-8990-1ba557a668c3
ORCID for Paul Roderick: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-9475-6850

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 30 Mar 2006
Last modified: 17 Dec 2019 01:59

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