Using Maximum Entropy to Double One's Expected Winnings in the UK National Lottery 1998
Using Maximum Entropy to Double One's Expected Winnings in the UK National Lottery 1998
We have used the Maximum Entropy method to estimate the probability of each of the 14 million tickets being chosen by players in the UK National Lottery. As data, we used the numbers of winners in the 3, 4, and 5-match categories and the total number of tickets sold in each of the first 113 draws. We have computed the marginal distributions for players choosing single numbers and pairs of numbers. A striking conclusion is that players preferentially pick numbers towards the centre of the ticket. By choosing unpopular combinations of numbers, one's expected winnings can be doubled.
629-41
Cox, S.J.
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Daniell, G.J.
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Nicole, D.A.
0aca6dd1-833f-4544-b7a4-58fb91c7395a
1998
Cox, S.J.
0e62aaed-24ad-4a74-b996-f606e40e5c55
Daniell, G.J.
f6ca2b4b-0ad9-4ae6-8cbe-97d6bffc899f
Nicole, D.A.
0aca6dd1-833f-4544-b7a4-58fb91c7395a
Cox, S.J., Daniell, G.J. and Nicole, D.A.
(1998)
Using Maximum Entropy to Double One's Expected Winnings in the UK National Lottery 1998.
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series D: The Statistician, 47, .
Abstract
We have used the Maximum Entropy method to estimate the probability of each of the 14 million tickets being chosen by players in the UK National Lottery. As data, we used the numbers of winners in the 3, 4, and 5-match categories and the total number of tickets sold in each of the first 113 draws. We have computed the marginal distributions for players choosing single numbers and pairs of numbers. A striking conclusion is that players preferentially pick numbers towards the centre of the ticket. By choosing unpopular combinations of numbers, one's expected winnings can be doubled.
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Published date: 1998
Organisations:
Electronic & Software Systems
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Local EPrints ID: 250895
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/250895
ISSN: 0039-0526
PURE UUID: 9d3e7ef8-f274-4df6-9406-752db4543e3a
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Date deposited: 30 Sep 1999
Last modified: 14 Mar 2024 05:06
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Author:
G.J. Daniell
Author:
D.A. Nicole
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