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Using Maximum Entropy to Double One's Expected Winnings in the UK National Lottery 1998

Using Maximum Entropy to Double One's Expected Winnings in the UK National Lottery 1998
Using Maximum Entropy to Double One's Expected Winnings in the UK National Lottery 1998
We have used the Maximum Entropy method to estimate the probability of each of the 14 million tickets being chosen by players in the UK National Lottery. As data, we used the numbers of winners in the 3, 4, and 5-match categories and the total number of tickets sold in each of the first 113 draws. We have computed the marginal distributions for players choosing single numbers and pairs of numbers. A striking conclusion is that players preferentially pick numbers towards the centre of the ticket. By choosing unpopular combinations of numbers, one?s expected winnings can be doubled.
629-41
Cox, S.J.
0e62aaed-24ad-4a74-b996-f606e40e5c55
Daniell, G.J.
f6ca2b4b-0ad9-4ae6-8cbe-97d6bffc899f
Nicole, D.A.
0aca6dd1-833f-4544-b7a4-58fb91c7395a
Cox, S.J.
0e62aaed-24ad-4a74-b996-f606e40e5c55
Daniell, G.J.
f6ca2b4b-0ad9-4ae6-8cbe-97d6bffc899f
Nicole, D.A.
0aca6dd1-833f-4544-b7a4-58fb91c7395a

Cox, S.J., Daniell, G.J. and Nicole, D.A. (1998) Using Maximum Entropy to Double One's Expected Winnings in the UK National Lottery 1998. J.R.Statist.Soc., 47, 629-41.

Record type: Article

Abstract

We have used the Maximum Entropy method to estimate the probability of each of the 14 million tickets being chosen by players in the UK National Lottery. As data, we used the numbers of winners in the 3, 4, and 5-match categories and the total number of tickets sold in each of the first 113 draws. We have computed the marginal distributions for players choosing single numbers and pairs of numbers. A striking conclusion is that players preferentially pick numbers towards the centre of the ticket. By choosing unpopular combinations of numbers, one?s expected winnings can be doubled.

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Published date: 1998
Organisations: Electronic & Software Systems

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 250895
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/250895
PURE UUID: 9d3e7ef8-f274-4df6-9406-752db4543e3a

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Date deposited: 30 Sep 1999
Last modified: 18 Jul 2017 10:14

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Contributors

Author: S.J. Cox
Author: G.J. Daniell
Author: D.A. Nicole

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