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Modelling for the planning and management of bed capacities in hospitals

Modelling for the planning and management of bed capacities in hospitals
Modelling for the planning and management of bed capacities in hospitals
The internal dynamics of a hospital represent a complex non-linear structure. Planning and management of bed capacities must be evaluated within an environment of uncertainty, variability and limited resources. A common approach is to plan and manage capacities based on simple deterministic spreadsheet calculations. This paper demonstrates that these calculations typically do not provide the appropriate information and result in underestimating true bed requirements. More sophisticated, flexible and necessarily detailed capacity models are needed. The development and use of such a simulation model is presented in this paper. The modelling work, in-conjunction with a major UK NHS Trust, considers various types of patient flows, at the individual patient-level, and resulting bed needs over time. The consequence of changes in capacity planning policies and management of existing capacities can be readily examined. The work has highlighted the need for evaluating hospital bed capacities in light of both bed occupancies and refused admission rates. The relationship between occupancy and refusals is complex and often overlooked by hospital managers.
hospital bed planning, hospital bed allocation, operational modelling, simulation
0160-5682
11-18
Harper, P.R.
e9853fed-d08b-4041-8d1e-c170fb1949f7
Shahani, A.K.
01f30d3f-6d62-4c19-8a3e-e4d223559dc7
Harper, P.R.
e9853fed-d08b-4041-8d1e-c170fb1949f7
Shahani, A.K.
01f30d3f-6d62-4c19-8a3e-e4d223559dc7

Harper, P.R. and Shahani, A.K. (2002) Modelling for the planning and management of bed capacities in hospitals. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 53 (1), 11-18. (doi:10.1057/palgrave/jors/2601278).

Record type: Article

Abstract

The internal dynamics of a hospital represent a complex non-linear structure. Planning and management of bed capacities must be evaluated within an environment of uncertainty, variability and limited resources. A common approach is to plan and manage capacities based on simple deterministic spreadsheet calculations. This paper demonstrates that these calculations typically do not provide the appropriate information and result in underestimating true bed requirements. More sophisticated, flexible and necessarily detailed capacity models are needed. The development and use of such a simulation model is presented in this paper. The modelling work, in-conjunction with a major UK NHS Trust, considers various types of patient flows, at the individual patient-level, and resulting bed needs over time. The consequence of changes in capacity planning policies and management of existing capacities can be readily examined. The work has highlighted the need for evaluating hospital bed capacities in light of both bed occupancies and refused admission rates. The relationship between occupancy and refusals is complex and often overlooked by hospital managers.

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More information

Published date: 2002
Keywords: hospital bed planning, hospital bed allocation, operational modelling, simulation
Organisations: Operational Research

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 29688
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/29688
ISSN: 0160-5682
PURE UUID: 6a223908-fae3-47a0-8379-6255092619a1

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 11 May 2006
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 07:34

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Contributors

Author: P.R. Harper
Author: A.K. Shahani

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