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Population needs assessment and access modelling for cardiac services

Harper, P.R., Yates, J., Wilderspin, H., Shahani, A.K., Bowie, C. and Duff, C. (2004) Population needs assessment and access modelling for cardiac services Journal of the Operational Research Society, 55, (5), pp. 529-534. (doi:10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601644).

Record type: Article


The National Service Framework (NSF) for Coronary Heart Disease (CHD), recently published by the Department of Health, specifies Government target rates for different cardiac procedures. This paper describes how the Eastern Regional Office of the Department of Health, with current rates approximately half the NSF target levels, designed a strategy to plan rationally for increases in service provision. A bottom-up needs assessment model was used to predict the population requirements for these CHD procedures and accounts for the effects of demographic change, anticipated reduction in the incidence of heart disease due to primary prevention programmes and the expected improvement in cardiology and cardiac surgery technologies. It is predicted that excess procedures would be required across the region over the next 20 years, and so a geographical access model was developed and used to recommend the building and location of a new tertiary cardiac centre to meet the increased demand. These tools have successfully been used in the Eastern Region to plan long-term increases in CHD rates in order to achieve Department of Health targets.

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Published date: 2004
Organisations: Operational Research


Local EPrints ID: 29703
ISSN: 0160-5682
PURE UUID: 0501cbcf-27b1-4666-9e52-ac095cf2b8eb

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Date deposited: 11 May 2006
Last modified: 17 Jul 2017 15:57

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Author: P.R. Harper
Author: J. Yates
Author: H. Wilderspin
Author: A.K. Shahani
Author: C. Bowie
Author: C. Duff

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