Podivinsky, Jan M. and McVicar, Duncan
Unemployment duration before and after new deal , Belfast, UK Northern Ireland Economic Research Centre 36pp.
(Northern Ireland Economic Research Centre Working Papers, 74).
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A major active labour market programme for unemployed young people – the New Deal for Young People (NDYP) – was introduced throughout the UK in 1998. Using duration analysis of previously unused administrative data to examine its effects in Northern Ireland for the first time, we also add value to existing NDYP evaluations in the following ways: first, we examine NDYP effects across disaggregated unemployment durations; second, we separately identify exits to employment, to education and training, to other benefits and to other destinations; and third, we estimate NDYP effects over a longer run. Our results suggest that since NDYP’s introduction, young people are half as likely to experience year-long unemployment spells, with increased probabilities for all types of exit. NDYP is intended, however, to largely eradicate long term youth unemployment. We ask why this has not been the case in Northern Ireland.
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