The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

Duration dependence and routes out of joblessness for young people

Record type: Monograph (Working Paper)

This paper examines young people’s exits from joblessness using recent survey data
for Northern Ireland. A reduced form search model is estimated, allowing for a fully
flexible specification of the baseline hazard function, with young people exiting
joblessness into either employment or education and training. There is evidence of
negative duration dependence in the conditional probability of exiting joblessness.
The relationship is not monotonic, however, there being a small ‘spike’ in the hazard
rate around 5-6 months consistent with an effect of the introduction of the New Deal
for Young People in 1998.
The paper argues that, given negative duration dependence, policy makers would do
better to increase targeted interventions on those facing the toughest barriers to
employment in the first month of joblessness, where possible, rather than wait for six
months as is the current case with New Deal. The main barriers to exit from
joblessness observable in the data include caring for a young child, having a family
background of unemployment and low levels of job search. Having poor
qualifications also acts as a barrier to exit from joblessness, particularly into
education. The introduction of Job Seekers Allowance in 1996 is correlated with
shorter jobless spells. Further research is suggested to examine these issues in more
detail, and in particular to examine in greater depth the effects of the introduction of
the New Deal on duration dependence in joblessness among young people.

Full text not available from this repository.

Citation

McVicar, Duncan and Podivinsky, Jan (2001) Duration dependence and routes out of joblessness for young people , Belfast, UK Northern Ireland Economic Research Centre 40pp. (Northern Ireland Economic Research Centre Working Paper Series, 66).

More information

Published date: 2001

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 33402
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/33402
PURE UUID: 27333058-ae91-4cf8-bfa5-615bfc436773

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 22 May 2006
Last modified: 17 Jul 2017 15:52

Export record

Contributors

Author: Duncan McVicar
Author: Jan Podivinsky

University divisions


Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×