Fisher, Stephen D., Ford, Robert, Jennings, Will, Pickup, Mark and Wlezien, Christopher
From polls to votes to seats: forecasting the 2010 British general election
[in special issue: Special Symposium: Electoral Forecasting Symposium]
Electoral Studies, 30, (2), . (doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2010.09.005).
Full text not available from this repository.
This paper outlines and discusses techniques for three stages in forecasting parliamentary seats from British opinion polls: adjusting and aggregating published vote-intention figures from across different polls; forecasting how public opinion might change before election day; and predicting the seat totals from the forecasted election-day vote shares. Specifically, we consider a state-space model for opinion polls which correct for house effects and other sources of survey error, the estimation of the historical relationship between polls and the election-day share of the vote, and a probabilistic approach to predicting the winner in each constituency.
Actions (login required)