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From polls to votes to seats: forecasting the 2010 British general election

From polls to votes to seats: forecasting the 2010 British general election
From polls to votes to seats: forecasting the 2010 British general election
This paper outlines and discusses techniques for three stages in forecasting parliamentary seats from British opinion polls: adjusting and aggregating published vote-intention figures from across different polls; forecasting how public opinion might change before election day; and predicting the seat totals from the forecasted election-day vote shares. Specifically, we consider a state-space model for opinion polls which correct for house effects and other sources of survey error, the estimation of the historical relationship between polls and the election-day share of the vote, and a probabilistic approach to predicting the winner in each constituency.
british elections, forecasting elections, opinion polls, state-space model, house effects
0261-3794
250-257
Fisher, Stephen D.
ae681ff6-29f6-4d14-83d9-fc272d7c3135
Ford, Robert
f2f320f9-15df-4a16-ab41-505f831a5ed1
Jennings, Will
2ab3f11c-eb7f-44c6-9ef2-3180c1a954f7
Pickup, Mark
9f23d950-f879-448e-b7a6-4b7f55ebe999
Wlezien, Christopher
e5c172ce-90fc-4bb3-989f-f11e4acb7e53
Fisher, Stephen D.
ae681ff6-29f6-4d14-83d9-fc272d7c3135
Ford, Robert
f2f320f9-15df-4a16-ab41-505f831a5ed1
Jennings, Will
2ab3f11c-eb7f-44c6-9ef2-3180c1a954f7
Pickup, Mark
9f23d950-f879-448e-b7a6-4b7f55ebe999
Wlezien, Christopher
e5c172ce-90fc-4bb3-989f-f11e4acb7e53

Fisher, Stephen D., Ford, Robert, Jennings, Will, Pickup, Mark and Wlezien, Christopher (2011) From polls to votes to seats: forecasting the 2010 British general election. [in special issue: Special Symposium: Electoral Forecasting Symposium] Electoral Studies, 30 (2), 250-257. (doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2010.09.005).

Record type: Article

Abstract

This paper outlines and discusses techniques for three stages in forecasting parliamentary seats from British opinion polls: adjusting and aggregating published vote-intention figures from across different polls; forecasting how public opinion might change before election day; and predicting the seat totals from the forecasted election-day vote shares. Specifically, we consider a state-space model for opinion polls which correct for house effects and other sources of survey error, the estimation of the historical relationship between polls and the election-day share of the vote, and a probabilistic approach to predicting the winner in each constituency.

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More information

Published date: June 2011
Keywords: british elections, forecasting elections, opinion polls, state-space model, house effects
Organisations: Politics & International Relations

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 336581
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/336581
ISSN: 0261-3794
PURE UUID: 25d59794-ba39-47d0-9501-0b0061cb2a25
ORCID for Will Jennings: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-9007-8896

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Date deposited: 30 Mar 2012 09:06
Last modified: 27 Apr 2022 01:56

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Contributors

Author: Stephen D. Fisher
Author: Robert Ford
Author: Will Jennings ORCID iD
Author: Mark Pickup
Author: Christopher Wlezien

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