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From polls to votes to seats: forecasting the 2010 British general election

Fisher, Stephen D., Ford, Robert, Jennings, Will, Pickup, Mark and Wlezien, Christopher (2011) From polls to votes to seats: forecasting the 2010 British general election [in special issue: Special Symposium: Electoral Forecasting Symposium] Electoral Studies, 30, (2), pp. 250-257. (doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2010.09.005).

Record type: Article


This paper outlines and discusses techniques for three stages in forecasting parliamentary seats from British opinion polls: adjusting and aggregating published vote-intention figures from across different polls; forecasting how public opinion might change before election day; and predicting the seat totals from the forecasted election-day vote shares. Specifically, we consider a state-space model for opinion polls which correct for house effects and other sources of survey error, the estimation of the historical relationship between polls and the election-day share of the vote, and a probabilistic approach to predicting the winner in each constituency.

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Published date: June 2011
Keywords: british elections, forecasting elections, opinion polls, state-space model, house effects
Organisations: Politics & International Relations


Local EPrints ID: 336581
ISSN: 0261-3794
PURE UUID: 25d59794-ba39-47d0-9501-0b0061cb2a25

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Date deposited: 30 Mar 2012 09:06
Last modified: 18 Jul 2017 06:07

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Author: Stephen D. Fisher
Author: Robert Ford
Author: Will Jennings
Author: Mark Pickup
Author: Christopher Wlezien

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