The dynamics of issue competence and vote for parties in and out of power: an analysis of valence in Britain, 1979–1997
The dynamics of issue competence and vote for parties in and out of power: an analysis of valence in Britain, 1979–1997
This article develops the reward-punishment issue model of voting using a newly collated aggregate measure of issue competence in Britain between 1971 and 1997, revealing systematic differences between governing and opposition parties in the way citizens’ evaluations of party competence are related to vote intention. Using monthly Gallup ‘best party to handle the most important problem’ and vote intention data, time series Grangercausation tests give support to a classic issue reward-punishment model for incumbents. However, for opposition parties this reward-punishment model does not hold: macro-issue competence evaluations are Granger-caused by changes in vote choice or governing party competence. An explanation is offered based upon the differentiating role of policy performance and informational asymmetries, and the implications are considered for comparative studies of voting, public opinion and for political party competition.
valence, competence, incumbents, oppositions, vote choice
469-503
Green, Jane
cff6cee4-a008-4a79-ad4f-bab7f80ff1fd
Jennings, Will
2ab3f11c-eb7f-44c6-9ef2-3180c1a954f7
2012
Green, Jane
cff6cee4-a008-4a79-ad4f-bab7f80ff1fd
Jennings, Will
2ab3f11c-eb7f-44c6-9ef2-3180c1a954f7
Green, Jane and Jennings, Will
(2012)
The dynamics of issue competence and vote for parties in and out of power: an analysis of valence in Britain, 1979–1997.
European Journal of Political Research, 41 (4), .
(doi:10.1111/j.1475-6765.2011.02004.x).
Abstract
This article develops the reward-punishment issue model of voting using a newly collated aggregate measure of issue competence in Britain between 1971 and 1997, revealing systematic differences between governing and opposition parties in the way citizens’ evaluations of party competence are related to vote intention. Using monthly Gallup ‘best party to handle the most important problem’ and vote intention data, time series Grangercausation tests give support to a classic issue reward-punishment model for incumbents. However, for opposition parties this reward-punishment model does not hold: macro-issue competence evaluations are Granger-caused by changes in vote choice or governing party competence. An explanation is offered based upon the differentiating role of policy performance and informational asymmetries, and the implications are considered for comparative studies of voting, public opinion and for political party competition.
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e-pub ahead of print date: 8 July 2011
Published date: 2012
Keywords:
valence, competence, incumbents, oppositions, vote choice
Organisations:
Politics & International Relations
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 336593
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/336593
ISSN: 0304-4130
PURE UUID: 8362f9cb-20ff-465c-b66e-89b4c87e8b46
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Date deposited: 30 Mar 2012 10:25
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 03:42
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Author:
Jane Green
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