The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

Cyclic patterns of incidence rate for skin malignant melanoma: association with heliogeophysical activity

Dimitrov, Borislav D., Rachkova, Mariana I. and Atanassova, Penka A. (2008) Cyclic patterns of incidence rate for skin malignant melanoma: association with heliogeophysical activity Journal of Zhejiang University - Science B, 9, (6), pp. 489-495. (doi:10.1631/jzus.B0820076). (PMID:18543403).

Record type: Article


Background: our previous studies revealed cyclicity in the incidence rate of skin malignant melanoma (SMM; ICD9, Dx:172) in the Czech Republic (period T=7.50?7.63 years), UK (T=11.00 years) and Bulgaria (T=12.20 years). Incidences compared with the sunspot index Rz (lag-period dT=+2, +4, +6, +10 or +12 years) have indicated that maximal rates are most likely to appear on descending slopes of the 11-year solar cycle, i.e., out of phase. We summarized and explored more deeply these cyclic variations and discussed their possible associations with heliogeophysical activity (HGA) components exhibiting similar cyclicity.

Methods: annual incidences of SMM from 5 countries (Czech Republic, UK, Bulgaria, USA and Canada) over various time spans during the years 1964?1992 were analyzed and their correlations with cyclic Rz (sunspot number) and aa (planetary geomagnetic activity) indices were summarized. Periodogram regression analysis with trigonometric approximation and phase-correlation analysis were applied.

Results: previous findings on SMM for the Czech Republic, UK and Bulgaria have been validated, and cyclic patterns have been revealed for USA (T=8.63 years, P<0.05) and Canada (Ontario, T=9.91 years, P<0.10). Also, various ‘hypercycles’ were established (T=45.5, 42.0, 48.25, 34.5 and 26.5 years, respectively) describing long-term cyclic incidence patterns. The association of SMM for USA and Canada with Rz (dT=+6 and +7 years, respectively) and aa (dT=?10 and +9 years, respectively) was described. Possible interactions of cyclic non-photic influences (UV irradiation, Schumann resonance signal, low-frequency geomagnetic fluctuations) with brain waves absorbance, neuronal calcium dynamics, neuro-endocrine axis modulation, melatonin/serotonin disbalance and skin neuro-immunity impairment as likely causal pathways in melanoma appearance, were also discussed.

Conclusion: the above findings on cyclicity and temporal association of SMM with cyclic environmental factors could not only allow for better forecasting models but also lead to a better understanding of melanoma aetiology

Full text not available from this repository.

More information

Published date: 5 June 2008
Organisations: Primary Care & Population Sciences


Local EPrints ID: 337463
ISSN: 1673-1581
PURE UUID: 74b140d7-6acd-44ae-bd29-fc87a20b95a5

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 26 Apr 2012 10:07
Last modified: 18 Jul 2017 06:03

Export record



Author: Borislav D. Dimitrov
Author: Mariana I. Rachkova
Author: Penka A. Atanassova

University divisions

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton:

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.