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Does specification matter? Experiments with simple multiregional probabilistic population projections

Raymer, James, Abel, Guy J. and Rogers, Andrei (2012) Does specification matter? Experiments with simple multiregional probabilistic population projections Environment and Planning A, 44, (11), pp. 2664-2686. (doi:10.1068/a4533).

Record type: Article


Population projection models that introduce uncertainty are a growing subset of projection models in general. In this paper we focus on the importance of decisions made with regard to the model specifications adopted. We compare the forecasts and prediction intervals associated with four simple regional population projection models: an overall growth rate model, a component model with net migration, a component model with in-migration and out-migration rates, and a multiregional model with destination-specific out-migration rates. Vector autoregressive models are used to forecast future rates of growth, birth, death, net migration, in-migration and out-migration, and destination-specific out-migration for the North, Midlands, and South regions in England. They are also used to forecast different international migration measures. The base data represent a time series of annual data provided by the Office for National Statistics from 1976 to 2008. The results illustrate how both the forecasted subpopulation totals and the corresponding prediction intervals differ for the multiregional model in comparison to other simpler models, as well as for different assumptions about international migration. The paper ends with a discussion of our results and possible directions for future research.

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Published date: 2012
Keywords: multiregional demography, probabilistic population forecasting, vector autoregressive (var) time series models, england
Organisations: Social Statistics & Demography, Statistical Sciences Research Institute


Local EPrints ID: 337955
ISSN: 0308-518X
PURE UUID: 3cc84852-674f-42db-9bee-330c363cba3e

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Date deposited: 04 May 2012 12:40
Last modified: 18 Jul 2017 05:59

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Author: James Raymer
Author: Guy J. Abel
Author: Andrei Rogers

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