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Forecasting environmental migration to the United Kingdom, 2010 - 2060: an exploration using Bayesian models

Forecasting environmental migration to the United Kingdom, 2010 - 2060: an exploration using Bayesian models
Forecasting environmental migration to the United Kingdom, 2010 - 2060: an exploration using Bayesian models
Over the next fifty years the potential impact on human livelihoods of environmental change could be considerable. One possible response may be increased levels of human mobility. This paper offers a first quantification of the levels of environmental migration to the United Kingdom that might be expected. The authors apply Bijak and Wi?niowski’s (2010) methodology for forecasting migration using Bayesian models. They seek to advance the conceptual understanding of forecasting in three ways. First, the paper is believed to be the first time that the Bayesian modelling approach has been attempted in relation to environmental mobility. Second, the paper examines the plausibility of Bayesian modelling of UK immigration by cross-checking expert responses to a Delphi survey with the expectations about environmental mobility evident in the recent research literature. Third, the values and assumptions of the expert evidence provided in the Delphi survey are interrogated to illustrate the limited set of conditions under which the forecasts of environmental mobility, as set out in this paper, are likely to hold.
2042-4116
22
ESRC Centre for Population Change
Abel, Guy J.
d35b5069-3c52-4d13-a678-1684ae1fce1e
Bijak, Jakub
e33bf9d3-fca6-405f-844c-4b2decf93c66
Findlay, Allan
6f2552dd-27d4-4a2d-845e-842826584b8a
McCollum, D.
bb462338-29c4-48d8-99bf-3fa2f540ecda
Wisniowski, Arkadiusz
ec9da054-45f0-4393-ad91-87e8f9750ae9
Abel, Guy J.
d35b5069-3c52-4d13-a678-1684ae1fce1e
Bijak, Jakub
e33bf9d3-fca6-405f-844c-4b2decf93c66
Findlay, Allan
6f2552dd-27d4-4a2d-845e-842826584b8a
McCollum, D.
bb462338-29c4-48d8-99bf-3fa2f540ecda
Wisniowski, Arkadiusz
ec9da054-45f0-4393-ad91-87e8f9750ae9

Abel, Guy J., Bijak, Jakub, Findlay, Allan, McCollum, D. and Wisniowski, Arkadiusz (2012) Forecasting environmental migration to the United Kingdom, 2010 - 2060: an exploration using Bayesian models (Centre for Population Change Working Paper, 22) Southampton, GB. ESRC Centre for Population Change

Record type: Monograph (Working Paper)

Abstract

Over the next fifty years the potential impact on human livelihoods of environmental change could be considerable. One possible response may be increased levels of human mobility. This paper offers a first quantification of the levels of environmental migration to the United Kingdom that might be expected. The authors apply Bijak and Wi?niowski’s (2010) methodology for forecasting migration using Bayesian models. They seek to advance the conceptual understanding of forecasting in three ways. First, the paper is believed to be the first time that the Bayesian modelling approach has been attempted in relation to environmental mobility. Second, the paper examines the plausibility of Bayesian modelling of UK immigration by cross-checking expert responses to a Delphi survey with the expectations about environmental mobility evident in the recent research literature. Third, the values and assumptions of the expert evidence provided in the Delphi survey are interrogated to illustrate the limited set of conditions under which the forecasts of environmental mobility, as set out in this paper, are likely to hold.

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More information

Published date: 1 May 2012
Organisations: Social Statistics & Demography, Centre for Population Change

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 338984
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/338984
ISSN: 2042-4116
PURE UUID: 882efae5-7904-4a1d-99c3-0836166f5571
ORCID for Jakub Bijak: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-2563-5040

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 23 May 2012 10:01
Last modified: 06 Jun 2018 12:35

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Contributors

Author: Guy J. Abel
Author: Jakub Bijak ORCID iD
Author: Allan Findlay
Author: D. McCollum
Author: Arkadiusz Wisniowski

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