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Continental Shelf-Wide Response of a Fish Assemblage to Rapid Warming of the Sea

Current Biology, Volume 21, Issue 18, Pages 1565-1570, Publication Date 15 September 2011
Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved.
DOI: 10.1016/j.cub.2011.08.016

Stephen D. Simpson

Simon Jennings

Mark P. Johnson

Julia L. Blanchard

Pieter-Jan Schön

David W. Sims

Martin J. Genner

School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1UG, UK

The Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Lowestoft Laboratory, Lowestoft, Suffolk NR33 0HT, UK

School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK

Martin Ryan Marine Science Institute, National University of Ireland, Galway, Galway, Ireland

Division of Biology, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK

Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK

Agri-Food and Biosciences Institute, Belfast BT9 5PX, Northern Ireland, UK

Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom, The Laboratory, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UK

School of Marine Sciences and Engineering, Marine Institute, University of Plymouth, Plymouth PL4 8AA, UK

Corresponding author

Highlights

► Majority of common northeast Atlantic fishes are responding significantly to warming ► Three times more species are increasing with warming than declining ► Local communities have been reorganized despite decadal stability in species composition ► Species range shifts are tip of iceberg compared to modification of local communities

Summary

Climate change affects marine biological processes from genetic to ecosystem levels [1,2,3]. Recent warming in the northeast Atlantic [4, 5,4, 5] has caused distributional shifts in some fish species along latitudinal and depth gradients [6, 7,6, 7], but such changes, as predicted by climate envelope models [8], may often be prevented because population movement requires availability of suitable habitat. We assessed the full impacts of warming on the commercially important European continental shelf fish assemblage using a data-driven Eulerian (grid-based) approach that accommodates spatial heterogeneity in ecological and environmental conditions. We analyzed local associations of species abundance and community diversity with climatic variables, assessing trends in 172 cells from records of >100 million individuals sampled over 1.2 million km² from 1980–2008. We demonstrate responses to warming in 72% of common species, with three times more species increasing in abundance than declining, and find these trends reflected in international commercial landings. Profound reorganization of the relative abundance of species in local communities occurred despite decadal stability in the presence-absence of species. Our analysis highlights the importance of focusing on changes in species abundance in established local communities to assess the full consequences of climate change for commercial fisheries and food security.