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Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe

Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe
Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe
We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize the mechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the ‘tipping’ potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding.
845-878
Levermann, Anders
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Bamber, Jonathan L.
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Drijfhout, Sybren
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Ganopolski, Andrey
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Haeberli, Winfried
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Harris, Neil R.P.
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Huss, Matthias
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Krüger, Kirstin
a464b456-9c7b-4f3e-82c6-ca9e22735d4a
Lenton, Timothy M.
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Lindsay, Ronald W.
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Notz, Dirk
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Wadhams, Peter
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Weber, Susanne
f265b8d5-9163-4c92-80ff-8d886734ae03
Levermann, Anders
67a33445-fe37-4a74-ba06-4c5daed1e5e3
Bamber, Jonathan L.
31d53bee-2ef7-4fba-bbef-230812645fa3
Drijfhout, Sybren
a5c76079-179b-490c-93fe-fc0391aacf13
Ganopolski, Andrey
7f30d880-0e4e-48aa-9f01-be94a6a78e86
Haeberli, Winfried
ff8847ed-8d8c-4b7d-954a-6368079738fe
Harris, Neil R.P.
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Huss, Matthias
eef705f7-195f-43a7-a43b-f3f8e4ad14a3
Krüger, Kirstin
a464b456-9c7b-4f3e-82c6-ca9e22735d4a
Lenton, Timothy M.
245a93ab-92e4-4719-a8b7-7ef66d65d048
Lindsay, Ronald W.
148dddb2-5448-474f-a3ad-a2e99cedccf4
Notz, Dirk
c4a4e734-e911-4093-9796-56f2d2b6e87d
Wadhams, Peter
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Weber, Susanne
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Levermann, Anders, Bamber, Jonathan L., Drijfhout, Sybren, Ganopolski, Andrey, Haeberli, Winfried, Harris, Neil R.P., Huss, Matthias, Krüger, Kirstin, Lenton, Timothy M., Lindsay, Ronald W., Notz, Dirk, Wadhams, Peter and Weber, Susanne (2012) Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe. Climatic Change, 110 (3-4), 845-878. (doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0126-5).

Record type: Article

Abstract

We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize the mechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the ‘tipping’ potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding.

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Published date: 2012
Organisations: Ocean and Earth Science

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Local EPrints ID: 340332
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/340332
PURE UUID: 49b5f23c-86bb-4ff0-933f-95a51eedc6d1

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Date deposited: 18 Jun 2012 15:49
Last modified: 08 Jan 2022 17:52

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Contributors

Author: Anders Levermann
Author: Jonathan L. Bamber
Author: Andrey Ganopolski
Author: Winfried Haeberli
Author: Neil R.P. Harris
Author: Matthias Huss
Author: Kirstin Krüger
Author: Timothy M. Lenton
Author: Ronald W. Lindsay
Author: Dirk Notz
Author: Peter Wadhams
Author: Susanne Weber

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