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Climate scenarios of sea level rise for the northeast Atlantic Ocean: a study including the effects of ocean dynamics and gravity changes induced by ice melt

Climate scenarios of sea level rise for the northeast Atlantic Ocean: a study including the effects of ocean dynamics and gravity changes induced by ice melt
Climate scenarios of sea level rise for the northeast Atlantic Ocean: a study including the effects of ocean dynamics and gravity changes induced by ice melt
Here we present a set of regional climate scenarios of sea level rise for the northeast Atlantic Ocean. In this study, the latest observations and results obtained with state-of-the-art climate models are combined. In addition, regional effects due to ocean dynamics and changes in the Earth’s gravity field induced by melting of land-based ice masses have been taken into account. The climate scenarios are constructed for the target years 2050 and 2100, for both a moderate and a large rise in global mean atmospheric temperature (2 °C and 4 °C in 2100 respectively). The climate scenarios contain contributions from changes in ocean density (global thermal expansion and local steric changes related to changing ocean dynamics) and changes in ocean mass (melting of mountain glaciers and ice caps, changes in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and (minor) terrestrial water-storage contributions). All major components depend on the global temperature rise achieved in the target periods considered. The resulting set of climate scenarios represents our best estimate of twenty-first century sea level rise in the northeast Atlantic Ocean, given the current understanding of the various contributions. For 2100, they yield a local rise of 30 to 55 cm and 40 to 80 cm for the moderate and large rise in global mean atmospheric temperature, respectively.
351-374
Katsman, Caroline A.
3b02aa84-550b-4a74-9331-28bc5e2f9601
Hazeleger, Wilco
21d5b030-1127-424f-b22b-0a470dcb5b32
Drijfhout, Sybren S.
a5c76079-179b-490c-93fe-fc0391aacf13
Oldenborgh, Geert Jan
64a54447-1cae-49f6-a18b-2c48483fc72b
Burgers, Gerrit
3f92b49f-a8d1-45ae-a6ea-aa6f2a44c8ae
Katsman, Caroline A.
3b02aa84-550b-4a74-9331-28bc5e2f9601
Hazeleger, Wilco
21d5b030-1127-424f-b22b-0a470dcb5b32
Drijfhout, Sybren S.
a5c76079-179b-490c-93fe-fc0391aacf13
Oldenborgh, Geert Jan
64a54447-1cae-49f6-a18b-2c48483fc72b
Burgers, Gerrit
3f92b49f-a8d1-45ae-a6ea-aa6f2a44c8ae

Katsman, Caroline A., Hazeleger, Wilco, Drijfhout, Sybren S., Oldenborgh, Geert Jan and Burgers, Gerrit (2008) Climate scenarios of sea level rise for the northeast Atlantic Ocean: a study including the effects of ocean dynamics and gravity changes induced by ice melt. Climatic Change, 91 (3-4), 351-374. (doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9442-9).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Here we present a set of regional climate scenarios of sea level rise for the northeast Atlantic Ocean. In this study, the latest observations and results obtained with state-of-the-art climate models are combined. In addition, regional effects due to ocean dynamics and changes in the Earth’s gravity field induced by melting of land-based ice masses have been taken into account. The climate scenarios are constructed for the target years 2050 and 2100, for both a moderate and a large rise in global mean atmospheric temperature (2 °C and 4 °C in 2100 respectively). The climate scenarios contain contributions from changes in ocean density (global thermal expansion and local steric changes related to changing ocean dynamics) and changes in ocean mass (melting of mountain glaciers and ice caps, changes in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and (minor) terrestrial water-storage contributions). All major components depend on the global temperature rise achieved in the target periods considered. The resulting set of climate scenarios represents our best estimate of twenty-first century sea level rise in the northeast Atlantic Ocean, given the current understanding of the various contributions. For 2100, they yield a local rise of 30 to 55 cm and 40 to 80 cm for the moderate and large rise in global mean atmospheric temperature, respectively.

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Published date: 2008
Organisations: Ocean and Earth Science

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 340333
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/340333
PURE UUID: 75b3691a-c43b-4076-9a73-eca0f39505b8

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Date deposited: 18 Jun 2012 15:59
Last modified: 04 Nov 2019 20:40

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