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Explaining seasonal fluctuations of measles in Niger using nighttime lights imagery

Bharti, N., Tatem, A.J., Ferrari, M.J., Grais, R.F., Djibo, A. and Grenfell, B.T. (2011) Explaining seasonal fluctuations of measles in Niger using nighttime lights imagery Science, 334, (6061), pp. 1424-1427. (PMID:22158822).

Record type: Article


Measles epidemics in West Africa cause a significant proportion of vaccine-preventable childhood mortality. Epidemics are strongly seasonal, but the drivers of these fluctuations are poorly understood, which limits the predictability of outbreaks and the dynamic response to immunization. We show that measles seasonality can be explained by spatiotemporal changes in population density, which we measure by quantifying anthropogenic light from satellite imagery. We find that measles transmission and population density are highly correlated for three cities in Niger. With dynamic epidemic models, we demonstrate that measures of population density are essential for predicting epidemic progression at the city level and improving intervention strategies. In addition to epidemiological applications, the ability to measure fine-scale changes in population density has implications for public health, crisis management, and economic development.

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Published date: 9 December 2011
Organisations: PHEW – P (Population Health), Population, Health & Wellbeing (PHeW)


Local EPrints ID: 341188
ISSN: 0036-8075
PURE UUID: 424187a2-8eff-45d3-ad39-316b4d0b2bf0
ORCID for A.J. Tatem: ORCID iD

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Date deposited: 17 Jul 2012 11:20
Last modified: 13 Oct 2017 08:02

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Author: N. Bharti
Author: A.J. Tatem ORCID iD
Author: M.J. Ferrari
Author: R.F. Grais
Author: A. Djibo
Author: B.T. Grenfell

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