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The economy, crime and time: an analysis of recorded property crime in Britain, 1961-2006

The economy, crime and time: an analysis of recorded property crime in Britain, 1961-2006
The economy, crime and time: an analysis of recorded property crime in Britain, 1961-2006
We seek to determine whether one of the unanticipated side-effects of social and economic changes associated with the adoption of neoliberal and monetarist economics during the 1970s/1980s was rising crime rates. Undertaking time series analysis of social and economic determinants of property crime (using official statistics on recorded crime for England and Wales from 1961 to 2006) we develop a model of the effect of changes in socio-economic variables (unemployment, inequality, welfare spending and incarceration) on property crime rates. We find that while three of these had significant effects on change in the property crime rate, income inequality did not. We conclude with a discussion of the extent to which neoliberal economic and welfare (and later criminal justice) policies can be held to have influenced the property crime rate since the early 1980s and what this tells us about the social and economic determinants of crime at the macro-level.
1756-0616
192-210
Jennings, Will
2ab3f11c-eb7f-44c6-9ef2-3180c1a954f7
Farrall, Stephen
c0bf4481-60fd-46f3-bc13-114bf4e58dd3
Bevan, Shaun
3142fa60-e99e-4f65-8ece-37cea21799cf
Jennings, Will
2ab3f11c-eb7f-44c6-9ef2-3180c1a954f7
Farrall, Stephen
c0bf4481-60fd-46f3-bc13-114bf4e58dd3
Bevan, Shaun
3142fa60-e99e-4f65-8ece-37cea21799cf

Jennings, Will, Farrall, Stephen and Bevan, Shaun (2012) The economy, crime and time: an analysis of recorded property crime in Britain, 1961-2006. International Journal of Law, Crime and Justice, 40 (3), 192-210. (doi:10.1016/j.ijlcj.2012.03.004).

Record type: Article

Abstract

We seek to determine whether one of the unanticipated side-effects of social and economic changes associated with the adoption of neoliberal and monetarist economics during the 1970s/1980s was rising crime rates. Undertaking time series analysis of social and economic determinants of property crime (using official statistics on recorded crime for England and Wales from 1961 to 2006) we develop a model of the effect of changes in socio-economic variables (unemployment, inequality, welfare spending and incarceration) on property crime rates. We find that while three of these had significant effects on change in the property crime rate, income inequality did not. We conclude with a discussion of the extent to which neoliberal economic and welfare (and later criminal justice) policies can be held to have influenced the property crime rate since the early 1980s and what this tells us about the social and economic determinants of crime at the macro-level.

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Published date: September 2012
Organisations: Politics & International Relations

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 343612
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/343612
ISSN: 1756-0616
PURE UUID: e27ccc87-ec4a-4328-a18e-a36d9cff0a13
ORCID for Will Jennings: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-9007-8896

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Date deposited: 09 Oct 2012 11:05
Last modified: 23 Jul 2022 02:04

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Contributors

Author: Will Jennings ORCID iD
Author: Stephen Farrall
Author: Shaun Bevan

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